Argument 102求虐待

小小游儿

Argument 102

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.



提纲:1.去年夏天10多万人参加音乐节并不能说明jazz很流行;每年参加音乐节的人是否来自本地;著名音乐家是否因为其他因素选择在M安家
2.调查问题可信性, 全国范围内调查的结果对具体的一个地方可能不适用
3.盈利问题


写作:

In this argument, the author states that Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe and predicts that the new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise. To support this argument, the author cites the following facts: (1) Over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer; (2) A number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe; (3) A recent nationwide study indicates that a typical jazz fan spends close to &1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. The argument suffered from some critical fallacies.



The major problem with this argument is that the author unfairly assumes that jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe. The mere fact that 100,000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer is insufficient to conclude this assumption. Without citing the number of participants in previous years, the number 100,000 is far too vague to illustrate the popularity of jazz music. Even if 100,000 participants is a large figure, it is entirely possible that most of them tend to join in the fun rather than liking jazz music. Without specific evidences, the author’s assumption can be rejected out of hand.



Moreover, the fact that a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe does not prove the conclusion neither. The author fails to consider and rule out other possibilities such as the comfort climate in Monroe, beautiful scenery and harmonious atmosphere can also account for their settlement. The argument simply equates popularity of jazz music with jazz musicians ‘settlement, which is unwarranted.



Another flaw that weakens this argument is that the author provides no evidence that the nationwide study’s results are statistically reliable. Lacking information of the randomness and size of the study’s sample, the author cannot make a convincing conclusion based on that study. Even if the nationwide study is valid, a nationwide study is not representative to Monroe. Without stating the consumption level and other special factors that might affect consuming habit in Monroe, the prediction is not persuasive.



Finally, even if jazz music club would necessarily be profitable as a result, the prediction is not constructive. Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Thus, it is entirely possible that the jazz music club’s costs of all-star, maintenance and stage, might render it unprofitable despite its popularity. Without weighing revenue against expenses the argument’s conclusion is premature at best.



To sum up, the author’s argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidences or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable of a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the author should reason more convincing, cite some evidence that is more persuasive and take every possible consideration into account.

看了竹林对几个instruction的见解,很有启发;
时间:43min  我检查一遍,最后写完的时候查字数,才453,貌似是有点少的,但补充不上.

竹林中人

嗯，字数不是问题，说清楚了说的有理就好。关于１０００００这个数字，还可以质疑的是它是不是全部的本地人？还有关于最近的Ｊａｚｚ　Ｃｌｕｂ　在一小时路程之外，这也可以质疑，比如，正是因为本地人不喜欢，才没有ｃｌｕｂ

小小游儿

谢谢竹林哦.