argumen5 求指导

sohiechan

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island
Gazette.
On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of
transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer
months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of
mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to
25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals,
the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped
accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of
Seaville, when Seaville’s town council enforced similar limits on moped
rentals.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be
answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have
the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these
questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

正文：
In this letter ,the author recommend that the town council should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island moped rental companies to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians .To support his recommendation ,the author quotes the neighboring island of Seaville ,where the moped accidents have reduced by 50% since its council enforced similar limits on moped rentals .Careful examination of this supporting evidence , however ,reveals that it lends little credible support to the author' recommendation.

A threshold problem with the recommendation is that the author fails to consider other reasons for the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville rather than the limits on moped rentals .Perhaps last year is a special case which the climate and some other factors make the residents go out seldom ,therefore the accidents reduced. Or perhaps the safe awareness among the residents of Seaville becomes so pervasive that less accidents occurred. Without considering these possibilities , the author cannot reach any firm conclusion that the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville dues to the limits on moped rentals.

Even if I accept the authors conclusion that it is the limits on moped rentals that result in the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville , the author cannot also apply this example to support that the experience in Seaville will also work in Balmer. Commonsense tells me that there are plenty of differences between the two islands which makes them uncomparable .

Last but not the least , the author gives no evidence that limits on moped rentals is necessary and sufficient to reduce the mopeds and pedestrians accidents .There are many other factors inducing the occurrence of these accidents, such as the bad weather ,conditions of roads ,the observance of traffic planner, people' safe awareness and so on. Lacking information about these situation which could have a effect on the occurrence of accidents , the author cannot guarantee that limits on moped rentals can reduce the mopeds and pedestrians accidents and no alternative choice which is better to reach the author’ aim.

In conclusion, the author fails to convince me that limits on moped rentals is a good stratagem to reduce mopeds and pedestrians accidents. To strengthen the recommendation, the author must assure that the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville is the result of the implementation of limits on moped rentals. What's more ,the author also need to inform me that the experience in Seaville will also work in Balmar. I would need more information that the limits alone can reduce the mopeds and pedestrians accidents.

竹林中人

第一个质疑点和第三个感觉有交叉啊

sohiechan

一语惊醒！嘿嘿，确实是~~~谢谢！

sohiechan

Last but not the least ,even if the author can substantiate that the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville result from the limits on moped rentals and the differences between the two cities is unsufficient to make them uncomparable ,the author rests on the further assumption that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted.



In conclusion, the author fails to convince me that limits on moped rentals is a good stratagem to reduce mopeds and pedestrians accidents. To strengthen the recommendation, the author must assure that the reduction in moped accidents in Seaville is the result of the implementation of limits on moped rentals. What's more ,the author also need to inform me that the experience in Seaville will also work in Balmar. To further support the recommendation, the author also need to assure me that other conditions which also influence the rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain constant.

更改后的第三段和结尾
我想请教一下，我还需要在哪些方面加强呢？具体有什么方法可以推荐的？谢谢了！

竹林中人

我自己的提纲：
1.S的accident量减少，跟limit之间的关系并不完全清楚，不能因为时间上的先后推出之间的因果关系，也许是S的人口减少了等原因造成accident减少。
2.即使这样的措施真的导致accident减少，但B和S两个地方的地理条件、交通设施和人口等不一样，不能简单的类比，认为S的措施在B就能有效。
3.这项措施即使真的有效，会不会有负面影响，比如可能因此导致本地民众抱怨出门不方便坐车，而且也可能因此而是外来做生意或者旅游的人减少，从而影响了岛上经济发展，因而没有做出全面的评估时，不能简单复制这种措施，也许会有更有效的措施。