In this argument, the business manager of achain of cheese stores recommends that in order to improve profits, their storeshould cease to sale many kinds of imported cheeses and focus primarily ondomestic cheeses. To support the recommendation, the manager points out thatthe best-selling chesses at newest store were those produced by domestic makers. And a survey is also cited toindicates that increasing number of people prefer domesticcheeses. The argument seems plausible at the first glance. Closescrutiny, however, reveals that it relies on a series of uncertain assumptionswhich render it unconvincing as it stands.
The first problem with the argument lies inthe similarity of the newest store and other stories. The manager assumes thatall relevant circumstances between them are same, which is unwarranted. It isentirely possible that the fact that five best-selling cheeses mentioned in theargument was the result from certain promotions in the newest store. Eventhough their high sales are not because the low price, there is no evidence toshow that the taste of customers throughout the whole country is necessarilysame with those who buy cheeses from the newest store. Any of these scenarios,if true, definitely undermines the manager's recommendation that all storesshould focus on the domestic chesses.
Besides, the manager cites the surveyconducted by the Cheeses of the World on the basis of the assumption that thedata works well when it is applied to the customers of the certain cheesestores. Obviously, the manager omits the possibility that their customers are apart of those people who do not subscribe this magazine.Or the number of the sample of the survey is too small to get validinformation. Without providing specific evidence to rule out thesepossibilities, I cannot accept what the manager claims.
Even if the authors can offer valid information to substantiate foregoingassumptions, the argument is still unconvincing. It relies on the unreliableassumption that the loss of stopping sale some kind of imported cheeses can becovered by the reduced expenses. Even though the majority of customers preferbuying domestic cheeses, it does mean no one would like to buy these importedcheeses. Maybe such imported cheeses are sold athigh price, thus a small number of the sales contributes greatly to the wholerevenue, which might far excesses the saved expenses by limiting inventory. To persuade me, the manager must give out accurate datato rule out such possibility.
In sum, this argument depends on severaldoubtful assumptions. In order to bolster it, the manager must provide clearevidence to lend credible support to the assumptions mentioned above, includingthat the situations of all cheese stores are quite same, that the survey citedis valid and representative and that the reducing in inventory is bound toincrease profits.
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发表于 2012-4-8 23:29:21
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