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- 717428
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- 2012-2-3
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- 1970-1-1
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【原文】The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station. “To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area. Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.” 【response】 In the memorandum, the arguer advocates that WWAC should change from its current rock-music format to a news and tale format. To support this recommendation, the arguer cites a fact that the population growth in their listening area resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. The arguer also points out that a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. However, close scrutiny of this argument reveals that it is unconvincing in several aspects.
In the first place, the arguer fails to offer clear information about whether the current listening rate is declining and what is the real reason of the decline in listener numbers. It is entirely possible that the main rock-music listeners are young people, however, these listeners may have leaved for work out of the area. Or perhaps, its broadcast time is so improper that most listeners are inconvenient to listen to the radio. Without providing this evidence the arguer cannot conclude that its current rock-music format must be changed.(现状如何)
In addition, a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music does not necessarily mean that residents have limited interest in music. The arguer fails to provide strong evidence to show this. It is at least likely that the recent published music is not very popular or lowly-qualified, and then, local residents do not want to buy them. Therefore, to give out a convincing suggestion the author has to provide strong evidence to rule out this possibility and prove that the local residents indeed have limited interest in music.
Finally, there is no evidence to show that whether new residents like the news and talk format or not. It is equally possible that these new residents, in fact, do not like this new format. If it is the case, then by changing to the news and talk format, WWAC cannot make listeners of these new residents.
In sum, lacking of necessary evidence, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more information—perhaps by way of a survey or other study--with regard to the new residents’ attitudes towards the new format, local residents’ interest in music and the cause of the decline in listener numbers. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.
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