补一下昨天的成果~~~691字，1小时20分钟，严重超时的孩纸伤不起啊~~救命捏~~~
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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In this argument,the author concludes the retail sale of home heating oil is going to be an increased demand in recommend investment in one of the major business operations called Consolidated Industries.To support this predicted conclusion, the writer employs a group of evidence as the following aspects. A great number of homes in the northeastern United States suffer a typically cold winter every year, with the solution of using oil for heating mainly.They experienced 90 days lower temperturatures than the years before on the last heating season, depending on this basic climatic situation, the forecasters of the climate claims that the homes in that region will endure the weather pattern like that for several more years. Another evidence for the author's theory is recantly growing population there result from the new built homes. We may accept part of the writer's view, however, in the absence of some critical evidence we cannot agree with the following problem which appear in the passage.
The threshold problem in the evidence is about the residents who are living in the northeastern United States experience of the 90days with voguemeaning.Firstly, without any concrete digit to indicate that the regions in the northeast of United States always soaks in a tremandous coldness. If that is really cold, what is the average tempreture annually in that regions. Even the areas there is actually cold as the argument claims, the 90 days coldness still has nothing to support because of the lackness of the details. What is the normal tempertureof this area? The tempreture is changing every day although in a little range, but the writer announce that the tempreture of the 90 days is continuingly be lower than normal, if the normal tempreture is 15 degree centigrade, and the tempreture of the prior 90 days is almost 13 degree centigrade which is the lowness one in this comparation. Meanwhile, the author fails to bring any evidence to clarify that the forecaster is capable to make the prediction about the winters in the following years.
Another problem that weaken the logic of this argument is that unequivalent cause relationship between the new built homes and the increasing population. It is difficult to decide whether the population is in an expending which based on the number of the birth and death in the region and the difference of it is able to represent the alert of the population. If the new built homes is the developers of some land agent who want to exaggerate the enterprise to benefit the company, the author might be misunderstood the builing stuffs. Even the homes is really buiilt up for the new residents, how can it prove that the residents is equil with an increment of people in the place?
Last but not the least puzzle is appearing in the conclusion from the author. It is hardly to conclude the increasing demand to theConsolidated Industries for the evidence that the cold winter with the traditional method of heating, and the continual weather suffering by the increasing number of people. Even the winter is in a terrible cold there, why should the residents there need a tranditional heating way? The oil fuel is a method which people used for many year before. With the development of the science technology, new source of fuel is in addition to people's life. The tranditional fuel might be put into the museum.Even the techonological development there is not enough for the residents changed the heating method, even the population there is in a rapidly ungrade, it still hard for the author to prove that the demend of oil fuel and the recommend investment inConsolidated Industries are predictably increased. The government there in a kind of possibility may buy the fuels out of that area, if that is in a lower price. We fail to find the conclusion can be predicted by the unaccomplished reasons.
To sum up, the conclusion in the passage still need a lot of evidence to be added. If the logical structure of it look forward to a peerless one, the author have to send a group of details in thisargument.
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发表于 2012-3-14 17:16:10
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