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7The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The argument, based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, lays a claim that it is necessary to open a cafe in Monarch Books store. In order to bolster this conclusion, the writer advocates that opening the cafe would attract more customers, along with the space of canceling the children's books. The author also points out that the Monarch Books store will have a superior to Regal Books store. Nevertheless, from a logical perspective, this argument is in effect hardly convincing due to critical flaws after a close scrutiny, albeit it may appear credible at a cursory glance.
In the first place, whether opening a cafe in Monarch Books store will attract lots of people is unwarranted. The author could not come to the conclusion that once the book store opens a cafe, it may play an important role in attracting customers. Hence, the arguer's reasoning is definitely flawed unless the writer can convince me with a survey that more and more people will go to the Monarch Books store, if the book store has a cafe.
In the second place, even though the author might provide evidence that more and more people will go to the book store because the new cafe, this argument remains ill-conceived. The argument rests on the further assumption that the book store should discontinue the children's book section. In this situation, the national census indicates that there is a great decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, thus it is necessary to cancel the children's book section for opening a cafe. Lacking such evidence, it is likely that the national tendency should not impact on Monarch. If this is the case, the Monarch Book store has no real reason to cancel the children's section. The other possibility is that even though the national survey is fit for Monarch, the number of buying children's books are increasing. Thus, without ruling out or accounting for these and other likely possibilities, the writer can not bolster this conclusion.
Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out the last flaw involved in this argument. Even if the evidence is supporting the foregoing provisos, the author just simply maintain that the Monarch Book store will have better compete with Regal Book store. Firstly, it is likely that Regal Book store is not successful though it opens a cafe. Secondly, even if there is evidence to verify the successful of Regal, it is no evidence to turn out that the Monarch Book store will successful. Finally, it has no possible to compete with Regal Book store. Pursuing these lines of reasoning, it proves to be the author's responsibility to mull over his assumption and then furnish it with cogent evidence so as to pave the way for a more tenable argument.
To sum up, it seems precipitous for the writer to jump to the conclusion that it is necessary to open a cafe in Monarch Books store. In order to draw this recommendation, the writer should point out more reasoning evidence, take every consideration into account. Therefore, if the argument had better evaluated the conclusion, I would to know more information about the various customers' numbers of Regal Book store before and after opening a cafe and about the survey about the numbers of children's books in Monarch. 时间:33min 字数:554 |
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