- UID
- 618478
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2011-3-24
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
Argument: The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury, a weekly newspaper.
‘Since a competing lower-priced newspaper, The bugle, was started five years ago, the mercury’s circulation has declined by 10000 reader. The best way to get more people to read the mercury is to reduce its price below that of the Bugle, at least until circulation increases to former levels. The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more business to buy advertising space in the paper.
Based on the facts that circulation decrease is coincidence with the emerge of another newspaper, the Bulge and that the price of the Bulge is lower than that of the Mercury, the author of the argument reaches the conclusion that the Mercury should decrease its price in order to retain its customers. However, I believe the argument is highly dubious because it commits several mistakes which are addressed as following.
In the first place, the author assumes that the decreasing circulation is caused by the higher price of the Mercury. Although this is possible, the author doesn’t offer any proof to substantiate this crucial assumption. It is likely that because the quality of the Bugle is better than that of Mercury. For instance, the Bugle hires more experienced reporters so that people are willing to buy its newspaper. The author can’t persuade me unless more preside information is provided.
In the second place, it is assumed that the customer of the Mercury can be regained by cutting down the price of the newspaper. Although it is maybe true, the author doesn’t authenticate this important assumption with any evidence. Since it is possible that the customers buy the Bulge rather than the Mercury for other reasons except the price, it is sure that the Mercury can’t retain its customers by decreasing its price. We can easily find another example. Suppose the customers buy the Bulge for its better quality. The unique way for the Mercury to win the customers back is to improve its quality. Only when the author proposes other information or data to support his/her opinion, he can convince me that his perspective is right.
Before to reach the final judgment of the argument, the author reaches the conclusion based on an oversimplified assumption that the Mercury will attract more advertiser if it can increase its circulation. There is no doubt that we can suspect what the author assumes will not happen in reality. Another possibility is that the advertisers choose newspapers based not only on its circulation, but also on other factors such as quality, prices, and volumes. The author should give me more accurate analysis to confirm his assumption.
In sum, while this argument seems reasonable at the first sight, it has a lot of flaws in logic. In order to strengthen his conclusion, the author should provide more evidence that can prove there is a causative-effect relation between the price and the circulation. Furthermore, the author should prove that there are no differences between the Mercury and the Bulge except the prices. Finally, the author should provide information to support the analysis that the higher circulation can surely attract the advertiser.
|
|