A76，食品与利润，望拍

大剑Jade

码字速度和思维清晰度是成正比的，在某种程度上，这篇我迷糊了。。


我的提纲：
1.被调查的人是否能够代表所有人的意愿？如果不能，那么80%以上就不能说明问题。
2.被调查的人是否可能执行他们的计划？
3.改公司是否只卖高脂肪食物？


Argument
新G题号：76
题目：The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
写作要求：Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.


The author advises to the investors that Old Dairy stockholders should sell their shares, and other investors should avoid purchasing stock in this company. While his recommendation is based on a series of seemingly plausible contentions, I find it not that convincible after a close scrutiny.
First off, the threshold problem lying in this argument is that the author assumes that the respondents are representative of all people, which is clearly lacking evidence. What if the respondents happen to be the ones indicating a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In this case, the high proportion of the respondents under the survey will fail to achieve its primary goal, unless certain methods of the survey are mentioned in this argument, proving that the survey is conducted in a scientific way.
Moreover, even assuming there’s no problem with the survey, there may exist a misunderstanding between the respondents and the survey conductors. For example, while the author tends to demonstrate the respondents would act to concentrate on low-fat foods, the respondents might just express their wish to reduce their intake of foods containing fats. This may be caused in situations where they could inevitably confront with serious situations, forcing them to circumvent passing out by merely taking low-fat foods, or might be too weakly determined to continue a diet of low-fat foods. Before jumping to a conclusion, the author should answer the question whether these respondents would carry out their plan concerning low-fat food by investigating in depth.
Besides, even conceding the foregoing presumptions will be provided with evidence shortly afterwards, a crucial problem remains to be settled: when the author alleges that many of its products are high in fats and cholesterol, he doesn’t rule out possibility of the company containing more low-fat foods. Certainly the gross sales of the company would not be deteriorated were it equipped with sufficient amount of low-fat products, guaranteeing the profits also. Thus the author’s assumption will stay flawed unless he doesn’t omit to inform us about the proportion of the foods containing high fats and cholesterol in this company.
In retrospect, the author might be precipitous to draw a conclusion after a careless reasoning. Only when the recommendation is provided with more specific evidences—the methods used when conducting the survey, the effectiveness of the respondents’ claim, as well as the total products produced in the company-- could it be a more sound argument, worth adopting as a splendid blueprint of the direction for the company.


418words, 32min

普渡哥

写得真好，比我好多了。

大剑Jade

主要是逻辑上我还是有点迷糊，怕找的攻击点跑偏呢。。

普渡哥

我觉得你列的第一个逻辑很多人都会写，下面的就是仁者见仁，智者见智了。

大剑Jade

哦这样~我觉得三个攻击点有一两个靠向大众还是很重要的，我看范文找的错误很少有特立独行的，只是他们讲的很清晰

普渡哥

是啊，那些大众的基本是不跑题的。