今天早上写的一篇AA，求指导。。

nancyfat

因为我没有报班，东西都是自己准备（看CD+参考书）也不知道自己写的东西怎么样，拿出来给大家看看 希望大家能给点意见，谢啦！
话说我打字真不算快，我基本上一直在写，30分钟也只能写400出头的字。。
嗯，上文。。这个是新东方的A19..说的大概是餐饮业过去10年空前发展，author就预测增长可以保持下去，并且一些社会变化比如工资增长和人们对美食兴趣提高之类的会导致餐饮业的发展。plus，人们对美食兴趣提高可以从大量出版的美食刊物看出来。。


A19
In this argument, the author concludes that the restaurant industry will flourish in the coming years. To support it, he points out that the restaurant industry has experienced unprecedented growth over the last decade. What’s more, he reasons that increase in income and leisure time, the rise in single-person household and growth in people’s interest in food also contribute to the flourish of the restaurant industry. He further announces that people’s greater interest in delicious food can be indicated by a proliferation of publications on the subjects. His argument appears to be acceptable at first glance, however, with more thorough consideration, it suffers from two main flaws.

In the first place, it is imprudent to conclude that the restaurant industry will prosperous in the next few years based on the fact that it grew rapidly in the past. An assumption has to be made in order to come to the conclusion. We should first assume that other factors, such as the develop environment for restaurant industry and people’s attitude towards food, remain the same. To predict that the restaurant industry will continue to grow just because it experienced grow in the past is groundless.

In the second place, the social changes referred to by the author do not necessarily lead to growth in the restaurant industry. For example, when people’s leisure time increases, they may spend more time in cooking at home. Also, when their salary increase, people are more likely to spend the increased salary traveling instead of going to restaurant. Moreover, people living by their own may find it difficult to make ends meet if they go to the restaurant frequently. Consequently, the prediction based on these social changes is questionable.

In the third place, the author also believes that a proliferation of publications on the subject suggests that people have more interest in delicious food. However, although people’s interest in food may be a critical factor contributing to a proliferation of publications on the subject, it is hardly the only factor. Other reasons, . Moreover, the author does not provide the publications information for other industry. So, it is possible that the publications concerning food are the least among all the publications. Unless the author rules out other potential factors and provides more information about publications in other areas, this conclusion is doubtful.

In sum, this argument is unconvincing to a larger degree. To strengthen the argument, the author has to show that the factors for developing the restaurant industry continue to hold. He also has to prove that the increase in publications is due to the rise in people’ interest.