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第一篇习作，请牛人指点，不胜感激！ 28. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper. “Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations.”
The argument is well-presented, but ill-reasoned. The arguer believes that by reducing the shuttle bus fares or increasing the price of parking at the subway stations, there will be more commuters to ride the shuttle buses rather than drive to the subway. However, the argument makes unfounded assumptions and fails to consider possible factors that may influence that effects of measures mentioned.
First of all, the arguer unwarrantedly assumes that the less commuters using the shuttle buses to the subway station is because more commuters drive to the station. There might be other possible explanations. For example, people who live near the subway station are more likely to walk there. It is possible that there are a lot of people living nearby. Besides, people can ride a bicycle to the subway station. This transportation might attract more young people who want to take exercises in their way to work. Thus, it is unfair to attribute the unexpected volume to the driving behavior.
Secondly, reducing the shuttle bus fares and increasing the price of parking may be ineffective to this problem considering other factors. It is possible that there are few shuttle bus stops. In that case, people might find inconvenient to take buses, therefore choosing other transports. In addition, if shuttle buses take longer time than cars to the destination, people who value time much will give up riding shuttle buses. Likewise, increasing the price of parking may be useless if commuters can find cheaper parking lots nearby. Or perhaps, people will not take the little-increased price into account if they care more about benefits brought by driving cars. Therefore, there are alternative factors should be considered before making decisions.
Last but not least, the transit company might make impropriate projections for the volume of commuter use of subway train as well as their use of the shuttle buses. Is that possible that the company overestimate the volume of the use of buses to the station, while at the same underestimate the total use of the new subway? If so, the worries behind the original problems are gone.
Overall, this argument seems logical because it is from the perspective of the transit company. Nonetheless, the company should consider all the possible factors before making measures to the problem. Also, the company should reevaluate its standards for the volume. | 
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发表于 2008-5-12 11:29:00
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