HBS到现在大概发了%多少invitation了呢？

elims

等得心焦啊。。。该做的基本都做到位了，W/E, Academic也相当不错，咋就杳无音讯呢。。。

yaoyao99

Probably 100%...

Why bother asking here?

elims

Serious?

Just in case some others know some statistics about
past-year interview invitation time series statistics... implication is
how much of my time should be allocated to round 2 application packages
for other schools... calculating odds.

Does it make sense to you yaoyao?

And also, my colleagues are making bets on the outcome of my hbs application. I think securitizing my mood is a good way to hedge my disappointment , but I don't want to get broke as well... so you can say there is some serious money behind the crucial statistics... I hope this makes more sense?

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-6 13:40:46编辑过]

yaoyao99

That someone won't be here if they know exactly how admissions office work.

iammad

其实LZ这个问题我也很想知道的说~ 但是我知道除了Adcom之外肯定没人知道，而Adcom肯定不会说，所以我也就忍着没问了。呵呵~

如果一定要知道的话，我们不妨做个计算吧。以今年4500人申请HBS的R1（3000人申请R2，总共7500人）来计算，假设HBS有15个Adcom在读application （其它的Adcom要去各地做宣传，负责回答申请者问题，负责class visit等等），每人每天读10份（假设他们很认真，读得比较慢），这样每天可以处理150份材料。每个月有20个工作日，所以到目前为止，他们处理了将近3000份材料。但是，因为每份材料都要经过2-3个adcom的处理，所以要除以2，也就是说，目前只处理完1500份材料。只处理了1/3~  到现在还没接到interview invitation的话，也许你的file就在那没处理的2/3的申请材料中呢。不用着急，呵呵~

安慰一下LZ，顺便安慰自己~  ^_^

tibetpearl

LS的，你的话应该很能安慰LZ...

starbird

4500份资料，15个人来读，，，我会做另一个计算：

地上画个圈，大家扔纸球，然后给圈里的人发邀请，，， - -||，，，

elims

Great analysis! Thanks for sharing. Well, another data point: they sort of start on 20th Oct, and by 30th Nov they will send out about 95% of invitations. Based on same assumptions above, assuming the invitation/processed package ratio stays constant during the 40-day period, they would have processed 4,275 packages during the 40-day period, 107 a day. I think that makes sense if they have 10-15 people.

Some other source says that "HBS dribbles out invites in a bell-curve". But I don't think that makes too much sense, 'cause that probably would place too much variability on the head count demand for the adcom.

Assuming no country bias in the process, then I have an excuse for 自我安慰. Many thanks to LS.  

iammad

以下是引用elims在2007-11-6 15:22:00的发言：
Great analysis! Thanks for sharing. Well, another data point: they sort of start on 20th Oct, and by 30th Nov they will send out about 95% of invitations. Based on same assumptions above, assuming the invitation/processed package ratio stays constant during the 40-day period, they would have processed 4,275 packages during the 40-day period, 107 a day. I think that makes sense if they have 10-15 people.

Some other source says that "HBS dribbles out invites in a bell-curve". But I don't think that makes too much sense, 'cause that probably would place too much variability on the head count demand for the adcom.

Assuming no country bias in the process, then I have an excuse for 自我安慰. Many thanks to LS.  

"by 30th Nov they will send out about 95% of invitations"?  楼上的，这个推测有什么根据吗？不是官方说法吧。好像十二月收到invitation的人不少，到一月都还有人收到呢~ 不要想象一个这么早的deadline，然后自己吓自己。。。让我们坚持到底，不见棺材不掉泪，不等到收到rejection letter的那一刻，都要相信明天就能收到invitation! ^_^

camelhill

why not spend more time preparing for it so that once you get the invitation you are ready to ace the interview?