In this argument the author concludes that Saluda town should provide a well-equipped gym for its municipal employees to reduce its group health insurance cost. The author’s line of reasoning is: Because research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise, thus by providing such well-equipped gym can reduce the health insurance cost by approximately 50%, consequently Saluda can achieve a balanced town budget. This conclusion is not very convincing for a couple of reasons. First, the author asserts that proving a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees can reduce the cost of group health insurance. However the author did not provide any evidence to prove it. What if Saluda already has a well-equipped gym, but it was seldom used by municipal employees? If most of the employees do not want to spend their time to exercise at the gym rather than go home earlier, then even well-equipped gym can work little for employee’s health. Consequently, adding new gym can not work well either. 开头两句太笼统了,不如细分一下说作者贸然架设建造一个体育馆人们就会去使用。 Second, even if it is granted that the municipal employees are likely to exercise at this newly provided gym, we can not logically conclude that providing gym can reduce approximately 50% of group health insurance. It is only general probability that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise, and it is totally different between probability of illness and health cost. Both common sense and our experiences with illness inform us that the costs of catching twice flu are far away from the cost of treating lung cancer once. 这一段表达意思是好的,应该再写详细点,把考官当作白痴,每一个逻辑细节都要写清楚。 Third, even if providing a well-equipped gym can attract employees to exercise regularly, and can reduce costs of group health insurance by 50%, we can not logically conclude that the government can achieve balanced town budget either. According to 2005 World Health Report of WHO, world average percentage of general government expenditure on health in total government expenditure is about 10%, and we can know that insurance costs are only one part of government expenditure, not most of important part. Because we do not know anything about Saluda’s government budget status, we hardly expect that reducing 50% of insurance costs can help to balance town budget. Thus this over rosy prospect is highly doubtful. Without overall detailed cost-profit analysis, we can not logically conclude the relationship between cost reduce of health insurance and town budget, thus we can not know whether providing well-equipped gym can help to achieve balanced town budget or not. 不要使用生活中的例子,因为AA题目中的数据很多都是乱举的,不能用现实的例子去反驳。 In conclusion, this argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the author would demonstrate that the newly provided gym surely helps to reduce the group insurance costs, and reduced insurance costs surely help to achieve budget balance through thorough cost-profit analysis. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.
|