[讨论]有关保底以及simon,notre dame的关键问题

shanexin

其他都同意。有一点比较惊讶，emory今年居然找不到人？这么多全奖放出去了。emory能有今天真要谢谢天天喝可乐的兄弟姐妹，不过emory上升的势头还真不错，有点量价齐申的感觉。

mohamoha

以下是引用teedayu在2007-3-1 23:45:00的发言：

这个世界上没有绝对不确定事件，只有信息收集不全和建模不完整。

I won't agree with this sentence. 如果模型能解释一切，LTCM的事情怎么解释

bettywushh

以下是引用teedayu在2007-3-1 23:33:00的发言：
bettywushh, it seems my words have deeply hurt ur self esteem, it wasn't my intention and I am sorry. But if you really believe you put a lot thought on the essay this year and tried ur best, then I strongly suggest you take some training of essay writing like CD or 太傻 because believe me it is ridiculous and unbelieveable to see a girl with a 760 GMAT ,110 TOFEL and F500 background to go to such sucky schools. Please for god sake, don't ruin your future like this and make such a joke. It will embarass CDers.

You are really mean to say so. I am 120% confident that everybody who reads my essays will say that my essays are good essays. You didn't hurt my pride but I was trying to tell you to learn to respect people more. Obviously you didn't get it.

Not even worth to argue with you anymore.

mohamoha

以下是引用bettywushh在2007-3-1 23:58:00的发言：

You are really mean to say so. I am 120% confident that everybody who reads my essays will say that my essays are good essays. You didn't hurt my pride but I was trying to tell you to learn to respect people more. Obviously you didn't get it.

Not even worth to argue with you anymore.

aggressive is good, esp in trading, sales role. and your style can find good job too. so take it if you really like your style.

teedayu

shanexin朋友，反过来想象emory为什么要发全奖？？还不是在贯彻用钱砸的原则？

teedayu

mohamoha，很常见的问题，LTCM倒闭是今年没有finance牛人得诺贝尔奖得重大原因，也是一个时代得结束，但是知识得价值绝对不应该低估！！就好像唐朝军队虽然在恒罗斯战役惨败但是绝对不能因此说因此才会有安史之乱！！我很有兴趣和你讨论一下LTCM得问题，你加我得MSN好了

米可可

楼主的本意和观点都挺好的，只不过说话的方式让人觉得不太舒服，至少有点强加于人的感觉，让对方缺少被尊重的感觉。

teedayu

简单说一下，LTCM出得问题不在模型上面，而是内部communication不好，是3只老虎在管一群老虎，所以除了问题，如果换一下成为1只老虎2只羊管一群老虎会好很多。另外方面，宏观层面得“势”绝对是不可低估得效应，过渡投机已经被市场再三警告过，索罗斯听进了这些警告，LTCM当作耳旁风。

fuhongl

no offense to anyone, just my 2 cents

一个人的一生注定要take risk,而且是many many times, 楼主assume 模型可以解决一切，但是有一个assumption,就是信息完全，which is too formidable to be true,我们每个人能做的，也正在做得，就是利用尽可能多的信息，去做出必须做的决策；而且，决策的时间是有限的，不可能让你对一个决策用无穷尽的时间去收集信息考虑决策，就算no time limits, 世易时移，收集的信息是上一个时间段的，it could not apply to new situation;更不用说endless incident factors you never could build into your model, can you build in butterfly factor in your model?.任何投资模型说到底都是end up with a possibility,just as a matter of higher or lower.

teedayu

shanexin朋友，忘了说了，我长期不看好emory得根本原因是emory finance太烂。纵观美国得MBA，finance不好得学校是绝对不入流得！！而finance这个major是最难用钱短期堆出来得（NYU是例外，大家不要和我理论，因为如果我举出大家不知道得事实会害死朋友得，况且NYU也不是近2年起来得，也用了十多年＋一个华尔街得location）