第一篇AA
A12. The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Mama Mia's, a chain of Italian restaurants:
"Officials of the movie industry report that over 70% of the movies released last year targeted a teenage audience. Furthermore, national sales data indicate that the favorite food of teenagers is pizza. Since a branch store of Good Times Movie Rental opened on Center Street six months ago, sales of takeout pizza at our restaurant next door have been higher than at any other restaurant in our chain. Because the rental of movies seems to stimulate pizza sales, the best way to increase our profits is to open new Mama Mia's restaurants next to or very near all of the Good Times Movie Rental stores.”
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In this argument, the vice president of Mama Mia’s, a chain of Italian restaurants, recommends that new Mama Mia’s branch restaurants be opened next to or very near the Good Times Movie Rental stores in order to increase the pizza sales of Mama Mia’s. To support this conclusion, the author points out that movie rental stores can stimulate pizza sales since teenagers, the targeted audience of most movies, would like to eat pizza while watching movies. The evidence he provided is that a Mama Mia’s restaurant has significantly increased its pizza sales since a branch store of Good Times Movie Rental opened next door to it. At first glance, the argument seems to be somewhat reasonable, but further reflection reveals that it suffers from a couple of critical flaws.
First, the author commits a logical fallacy of causal oversimplification. His line of reasoning is that because A happens before B, A is responsible for B. He attributes the sales increase of the Mama Mia’s restaurant on Center Street to the debut of the nearby movie rental store simply because the former occurred after the latter. This reasoning is unconvincing since it fails to consider other factors that may cause the increase of pizza sales. For example, it is very likely that this individual restaurant has either improved the quality of its customer service or altered the flavor of its products. It is also possible that people have gradually changed their attitude upon pizza since they have increasingly found it convenient and nutrient and thus increased their purchase. Until these possible reasons are considered and ruled out, the author cannot validly draw the conclusion.
Second, the author assumes that the movies that will be released in the coming years are also targeted the teenage audience as the movies released last year were. However, no evidence is provided in the argument to support this assumption. The fact that over 70% of the movies released last year targeted teenagers does not necessarily forecast future trends of the movie industry. If the movie industry no longer focuses on the teenager audience in the future years, as a result no teenagers will shop at Good Times Movie Rental, and consequently the next-door Mama Mia’s will lose its major customer base, not to mention increase profits.
In sum, the vice president fails to provide adequate justification for the business recommendation he made. To strengthen the conclusion, the author would have to prove that the sales increase is indeed caused by the nearby movie rental store, not by other events, and that the movies to be released later on will continuously targets at teenagers.
这篇还好,有440字了。第一次训练模版,好多结构性的句子都是照魔板抄来的,自己没动脑筋改,呵呵,争取多练几篇,熟了大概就能稍微变化变化了。关于这篇AA的问题就是想不出逻辑错误,死活憋了大半天才想出两点,还好自己比较能扩展,字还不算少。但是最好能写出三点以上,对吧?
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-4-6 20:46:58编辑过] |