经历长达四年的怀疑和绝望后,多数商学院相信,MBA市场已经稳定。就薪资水平而言,麻省理工学院职业发展中心主任维尔布指出,在高盛的推动下,美国银行业已将底薪提高了1万美元,达到9.5万美元。
作者:英国《金融时报》德拉#布拉德肖(Della Bradshaw)
最近一段时间,美国的商学院终于“松了一口气”。由于MBA毕业生在招聘市场上遇冷以及申请入学人数的减少,这些院校曾经历了四年的怀疑、否定和绝望期。而现在的形势则让大部分学校相信,MBA市场已开始稳定下来。其中较为乐观的一些院校认为,好日子就在前头了。
对商学院来说极为关键的两个指标——希望聘用该校MBA毕业生的招聘单位数量和申请就读该校MBA的学生人数——现在看起来都很乐观。
衡量前一个的指标的是毕业生在2005年享受的薪资水平和前来这些美国学校招聘的单位数量。麻省理工学院(MIT)职业发展中心主任杰奎琳#维尔布(Jacqueline Wilbur)说,在高盛(Goldman Sachs)的率领下,银行业将底薪提高了1万美元,达到9.5万美元。她说,这是自1996年来底薪的第一次上升。各大咨询公司也把底薪提高了5,000美元。科技公司重新开始了校园招聘,并且不再
以期权作为薪资,而是直接支付现金薪水。
“(在麻省理工) 商学院毕业生的平均底薪已经涨到了10万美元。”维尔布女士说。纽约哥伦比亚商学院的情况也差不多。该院院长格伦#哈巴德(Glenn Hubbard)表示,去年得到2到3份工作录用意向的毕业生人数有所上升。“校园招聘的情况要比上世纪90年代后期更加理想。”
考虑到哥伦比亚大学靠近华尔街,因此可以想见的是,其中很多工作机会均来自银行和金融业。哈巴德教授说,现在华尔街所关心的问题是,一场企业间的人才争夺战已经打响。
《金融时报》2006年全球MBA排行榜的就业统计数据证实了这一点。例如,在2002年,全美排行前10名的商学院毕业生中,有12%的人在毕业3个月后还没有工作。但在今年的统计中,这些学校的毕业生中,毕业3个月后还在找工作的只有8%。
在那些排名稍低的学校里,今年的情况则有了更为明显的改善。2002年,康奈尔大学商学院仅有74%的毕业生在毕业3个月以内找到了工作,在加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院,这个数字是73%。而在2005年,两校的数字分别是88%和94%。
MBA项目的申请人数一直都很起伏动荡。2005年入学的MBA班中,世界各地的申请人数仍然很少,有人估计申请人数下降了30%。例如在英国,除了牛津大学的赛德学院(Sa?d),几乎所有学校的申请和入学人数都下降了。但是根据西北大学凯洛格学院助理院长贝斯#伏莱(Beth Flye)的说法,随着2006年秋季学期的入学申请开始,人们有理由对形势表示乐观。“我们预计,(美国)MBA的申请和入学人数]会稳健增长,一直持续到2010年。”她的乐观也许是有充分依据的。
美国人口普查局(US Bureau of the Census)的最新统计数据表明,全世界25至29岁之间的成年人口数量将从2005年的5.1亿攀升至2015年的6亿,这些人正是MBA项目的目标人群。
同期在北美,这个年龄段的人口也将从2,200万增加到2,450万。在欧洲(包括西欧和东欧),这个年龄段人口数量将会下降。最大的增长来自亚洲。潜在的MBA学员适龄人口将从2005年的2.9亿增加到2015年的3.5亿人。预计拉丁美洲该年龄段的人口也将有显著增长。
位于多伦多的约克大学斯古里克商学院(Schulich)院长德佐#霍瓦斯(Dezs? Horváth)说,这个趋势意味着MBA目标人群的增长将来自那些现今只拥有少量MBA项目的地区。商学院如果要吸引到最优秀的学生,就必须采用更加国际化的办学手段。霍瓦斯教授认为:“商学院将像企业一样跨国发展。教学更多的将通过合作伙伴来完成。”
很多美国商学院已经看到了这一趋势。比如马里兰大学的史密斯商学院(Smith)早在2001年就开始在中国开办了其第一个海外项目。如今,该院已经在四大洲开展MBA项目——北美洲(华盛顿)、欧洲(苏黎世)、亚洲(北京和上海)和非洲(突尼斯)。
“如果你想成为一个世界级的商学院,而又不打算跨国发展,那基本上是行不通的。”史密斯商学院的副院长斯各特#考威尔(Scott Koerwer)说,“那些尚未开始跨国进程的学校将会失败。”
这个理念也慢慢在美国学生中传播开来。尽管他们中的绝大多数人——超过98%的人——仍然在申请美国商学院,但据管理学研究生招生协会(GMAC)的最新统计,有越来越多的人正在考虑去西欧读MBA。
2000年,美国人向西欧的商学院发出了2,305份GMAC考试成绩单。2005年是3,701份,增长了62%。
美国学生经常申请的是诸如欧洲工商管理学院(Insead)和伦敦商学院(London Business School)之类的大牌院校,但是今年巴黎高等商学院(HEC)表示,美国已成为该校最大的生源地。“今年就读我校MBA项目的美国学生比法国学生还多。”HEC的MBA项目副院长瓦勒热#古西尔(Valérie Gauthier)说。“这类学生大多申请过美国和欧洲两种体系下的商学院,但是他们最后选择了欧洲。”
将于今年夏天就任欧洲工商管理学院院长的弗兰克#布朗(Frank Brown)认为,在美国学生开始青睐文化多元化的欧洲MBA教育体系的同时,欧洲的院校仍需要努力说服美国的机构到欧洲进行招聘。“这是一个巨大的机会。”身为美国人的布朗先生说道,“当我向美国公司介绍欧洲工商管理学院的时候,他们都感到十分惊奇。”他说,美国人以前没有认识到,欧洲工商管理学院的学生具有如此多元化的文化背景。
布朗先生还认为,一年制的MBA教学模式对于美国公司会越来越有吸引力。在美洲,一些商学院已经开始把它们的MBA教学时间缩短到了12个月。
西安大略大学毅伟管理学院(Ivey)的院长卡萝尔#斯蒂文森(Carol Stephenson)相信,一年制MBA是未来的趋势。
她指出:“学生们想要集中精力尽快完成MBA课程。”脱产学习两年的机会成本实在太高了。
在阿根廷,顶尖的商学院IAE也将其课程时间从16个月压缩到了12个月,从而提高了对学生(其中包括海外生源)的吸引力。院长费南多#弗拉圭罗(Fernando Fragueiro)认为,企业对于MBA认识的转变是一年制项目走俏的原因之一。“现在人们认为,MBA只是(管理者职业生涯的)第一步……在之后的道路上则将由企业提供拓展技能的机会。”
在美国,转向一年制体系的学校也越来越多。加州大学圣迭戈分校拉迪商学院(Rady)院长罗伯特#萨利文(Robert Sullivan)希望将他的学校的MBA项目缩减到12个月。他相信其他美国商学院转到一年制体系下只是一个时间问题。“我认为这是毫无疑问的。”他说道。他还预计,即使是那些最顶尖的美国商学院,也可能会开始做这方面的尝试。
The sighs of relief at US business schools are almost audible these days. After four years of disbelief, denial and despair, as recruiters turned their backs on MBAs and the applicant pools dried up, most schools are convinced the MBA market has stabilised. Indeed, the more optimistic believe that good days are ahead.
The two key indicators for business schools – the number of recruiters who want to employ their graduates and the number of students applying for their programmes – are both looking rosy.
The first indicator was the salaries paid to graduates in 2005 and the number of recruiters who visited US campuses. The banking industry, led by Goldman Sachs, raised the base salary it offered by $10,000, to $95,000, says Jacqueline Wilbur, director of the career development office at MIT. This was the first rise in base salaries since 1996, she says. The big consultancy firms also raised their basic salaries by $5,000. Technology companies were back recruiting and paying salaries rather than options.
“The average base salary was bumping up to $100,000 [at MIT],” says Ms Wilbur. At Columbia in New York City, it is a similar story. Dean Glenn Hubbard says the number of graduates with three or more job offers rose last year. “On-campus recruiting is more robust than even in the late 1990s.”
Not surprisingly given Columbia’s location close to Wall Street, many of the job offers are in banking and finance. Prof Hubbard says a concern in Wall Street is that companies are in a scramble for talent.
The employment statistics reported for MBA2006, the Financial Times ranking of global MBA programmes, verify the anecdotes. In 2002, for example, 12 per cent cent of graduates from the top 10 US schools were without a job three months after graduation. The statistics reported from the top 10 schools in this year’s ranking show that just 8 per cent were still looking for a job in the same timeframe.
For schools lower down the rankings, the discrepancy was much higher. At Cornell, only 74 per cent of the students who graduated in 2002 had a job within three months and at the Anderson school at UCLA the figure was 73 per cent. In 2005, the figures were 88 and 94 per cent respectively.
More fragile are the numbers of applicants looking for a place on an MBA programme. For the entering class of 2005, figures were still very low across the world, with some estimates putting the number of applicants down as much as 30 per cent. In the UK, for example, almost every school except the Sa?d school at Oxford University has seen application and enrolment numbers fall. But as applications begin to roll in for the class that will start in autumn 2006, there is a real sense of optimism, says Beth Flye, assistant dean at the Kellogg school at Northwestern University. “[In the US] we predict steady growth through 2010.” Her optimism may have sound grounding.
Recent statistics from the US Bureau of the Census show that the growth in the worldwide population of adults between the age of 25 and 29 – the target age group for MBA programmes – is set to climb steeply from 510m in 2005 to 600m in 2015.
In North America over the same period the growth in the number of people in this age range is also set to grow from 22m to 24.5m.In Europe (both western and eastern) the population will fall, according to the statistics. The biggest growth, though, will be in the number of potential MBA students in Asia, up from 290m in 2005 to 350m in 2015. Numbers in Latin America in the same age group are also set to grow strongly.
This means the growth in the MBA population will be in geographical areas where there are few MBA programmes today, points out Dezs? Horváth, dean of the Schulich school at York University in Toronto. All this means that business schools will have to become more international in their approach if they are to attract the brightest students, he says.
“MBA programmes are going to become more trans-national,” argues Prof Horváth, much more like corporations. “There will be more delivery through partnerships.”
Many US business schools have already seen the writing on the wall. The Smith school at the University of Maryland, for example, started running its first overseas programmes in China as recently as 2001, but today it is running programmes on four continents: North America (Washington), Europe (Zürich), Asia (Beijing and Shanghai) and Africa (Tunis).
“If you want to be a world class college of business and if you’re not engaged in a multi-national arena, then it fundamentally doesn’t work,” says Scott Koerwer, associate dean at the Smith school. “Institutions that don’t begin this process now are going to fail.”
It is a message that is very slowly getting through to US students, too. Although the overwhelming majority of them – more than 98 per cent – still apply to US business schools, a growing number see western Europe as a place to study for an MBA, according to the latest statistics from GMAC (Graduate Management Admissions Council).
In 2000, US citizens sent 2,305 GMAC test scores to western European business schools. In 2005 the figure was 3,701, a 62 per cent increase.
US students have often frequented the big name schools such as Insead and London Business School, but this year HEC Paris reports that its largest student group is from the US.
“There are more Americans on the programme than French,” says Valérie Gauthier, associate dean for the MBA at HEC.
”The profiles are of people who tried the US and European systems and then chose the European one.”
While US students are beginning to favour the multicultural European system, dean-in-waiting at Insead, Frank Brown, who will take up his role this summer, believes there is much still to do to persuade US organisations to recruit in Europe. “This is a huge opportunity,” says Mr Brown, himself an American. “They [US corporations] are amazed when I tell them about Insead.” In particular, they are unaware of the multi-cultural profile of the students at Insead, he says.
Mr Brown also believes that the one-year MBA model will increasingly appeal to US corporations. In the Americas, some business schools have already cut their programmes to 12 months.
At the Ivey school at the University of Western Ontario, dean Carol Stephenson believes the one-year model is the way forward.
“Students want to focus on it [the MBA], do it and get it done,” she argues: the opportunity cost of taking two years out of the workplace is too high.
In Argentina, leading business school IAE has reduced the length of its programme from 16 to 12 months and attracted an increasing number of students, including from overseas. The changing perception of the MBA in corporations is one reason for the popularity of the one-year programmes, argues dean Fernando Fragueiro. “The MBA is now seen as a first step [in a management career]...with companies giving further opportunities for managers to develop skills.”
In the US there is a growing number of converts to the one-year system. Robert Sullivan, dean of the Rady school at UC San Diego, hopes to reduce the length of his programme to 12 months and believes it is only a matter of time before other US schools introduce one-year programmes. “I think there’s no question,” he says.
Indeed, he predicts that even some of the very top US schools may bite the bullet.
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