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Date: 2005-9-8
Time: 18:15:09
Argument No.1
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Question:
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
`Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.~
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
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Your Answer:
In this argument the author reaches the conclusion that they can expect that their long experience will enable them to minimize costs and thus maximize profits. The basis for this recommendation is that over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. The author cites the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984as an example in support of this recommendation. At first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it omits some important concerns that should be addressed to substantiate the argument.
In the first place, the author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. Although the costs of processing will go down since as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient, it does not thoroughly show that the company could minimize costs and thus maximize profits. Whether the profits will be maximize depends not only on the costs of processing, but also on other costs, such as raw material costs, new technology costs, and new equipment costs. The author's conclusion is not strongly supported by the reasons given.
In the second place, The evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. A mere positive correlation between the costs of color film processing and profits does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. Both common sence and our experience inform us that even the costs of color film processing go down, it does not mean that the color film company will maximize profits accordingly.
In the third place, the argument rests on the assumption that frozen food processing is analogous to color film processing in all respects. This assumption is weak, since although there are points of comparison between frozen food processing and color film processing, there is much dissimilarity as well. For example, the costs of frozen food processing may depend mainly on the costs of raw materials, however, the costs of color film processing are mostly decided by the development of technology. Thus, it is likely much more difficult to compare the two different costs with their respective sequences.
In conclusion, the author fails to provide adequate justification for his argument. As it stands, the reasoning does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the recommendation. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide evidence to prove that long experience enable the company to minimize costs and thus maximize profits. To better assess the argument, we need additional detailed information about all the costs of frozen foods processing so that we can establish the conclusion whether long experience enable the company to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.
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发表于 2005-9-9 19:34:00
楼主
