AA016，还有四天，第二篇AA，请提宝贵意见！

roberto0220

The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.

`Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college -level teaching positions in their fields.~

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

********************

In this argument, the arguer concluded that all academic job seeks including those from Waymarsh, will have better times in getting teaching jobs at the college level, in the next decade. In additionally, the arguer cited as an evdience that demograhpic trends indicate that there will be an increasing number of people reaching college age over the next ten years. Moreover, the arguer also unfaily assumped that those graduates degrees from Waymarsh University will also benefit from the increase. At the fist glance, the argument sounds very convincing and encouraging, however, after serious considerations, we will find the arguement suffers from some critical flaws.

First of all, the argument is unconvincing by making causal oversimplification. Without further study, we can't jump to a conclusion that the increase in the number of people who will be reaching college age will necessarily create an optimistic job market for those graduates. The development of the job market is affected by many factors. For example, if those people when they are reaching college age don't choose to go to college, the job market will be still not good. Therefore, before the arguer can rule out any other possbilities that can influnce the job market, we can't trust the arguer's claim.

Secondly, the argument is not trustworthy by making unfair assumption that those graduates from Waymarsh University will also benefit from the improved job market. The arguer attributed the failure of those graduates' difficulty in find a teaching job to the poor job market. But common sense tells that there might be some other reasons for those graduates from that University. For example, the overall quality of the graduates was not very good and couldn't meet the minimum requirements of the most teaching jobs at college levels. Hence, the argument suffers from unwarranted assumption.

Finally, the arguer used untrusted evidence by citing the demographic trends. There is no detailed information about when, who, how the demographic survey comes into being. It is quite possible that the demographic survey uses unrepresentative sample and fails to give valuable information. Obviously, the evidence of demographic trends are not reliable sources.

To sum up, the argument fails to validate the claim by making hasty generalization, unfair assumption and unreliable evidence. To make it convincing, the arguer would have to provide more detailed information regarding the job market, the quality of the graduates, and the demographic survey.

Words: 397

时间有点紧，感觉aa还得加把力，请大家提提意见和建议，尤其是judy斑竹！

judydongxueni

以下是引用roberto0220在2005-7-17 21:30:00的发言：

The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.

`Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college -level teaching positions in their fields.~

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

********************

In this argument, the arguer concluded that all academic job seeks

好象是seekers吧？

including those from Waymarsh, will have better times in getting teaching jobs at the college level, in the next decade. In additionally,

in addition, additionally都可以

the arguer cited as an evdience that demograhpic trends indicate that there will be an increasing number of people reaching college age over the next ten years. Moreover, the arguer also unfaily assumped

没有必要用过去式啊

that those graduates degrees from Waymarsh University will also benefit from the increase. At the fist glance, the argument sounds very convincing and encouraging, however, after serious considerations, we will find the arguement suffers from some critical flaws.

First of all, the argument is unconvincing by making causal oversimplification. Without further study, we can't jump to a conclusion that the increase in the number of people who will be reaching college age will necessarily create an optimistic job market for those graduates. The development of the job market is affected by many factors. For example, if those people when they are reaching college age don't choose to go to college, the job market will be still not good. Therefore, before the arguer can rule out any other possbilities that can influnce the job market, we can't trust the arguer's claim.

Secondly, the argument is not trustworthy by making unfair assumption that those graduates from Waymarsh University will also benefit from the improved job market. The arguer attributed the failure of those graduates' difficulty in find a teaching job to the poor job market. But common sense tells that there might be some other reasons for 好象按照SC的观点这里应该再加上 the failure  those graduates from that University. For example, the overall quality of the graduates was not very good and couldn't meet the minimum requirements of the most teaching jobs at college levels. Hence, the argument suffers from unwarranted assumption.

Finally, the arguer used untrusted evidence by citing the demographic

dubious 吧如果不想重复地使用一个词就用韦氏的同义词字典查一下同义词。我感觉你这里是想用untrustworthy的同义但一时没有想到。呵呵方法是rhod斑斑的我借用下。

trends. There is no detailed information about when, who, how the demographic survey comes into being. It is quite possible that the demographic survey uses unrepresentative sample and fails to give valuable information. Obviously, the evidence of demographic trends are not reliable sources.

To sum up, the argument fails to validate the claim by making hasty generalization, unfair assumption and unreliable evidence. To make it convincing, the arguer would have to provide more detailed information regarding the job market, the quality of the graduates, and the demographic survey.

Words: 397

时间有点紧，感觉aa还得加把力，请大家提提意见和建议，尤其是judy斑竹！

呵呵不要因为我那天说GG的issue写的好就有了AA不好的先入为主的意识。可能那个时候你还没有准备模版。我现在觉得你的AA写的更好呵呵。注意小的点尤其是时态单复数要么人工很可能因为这个原因给你扣0。5，那就很不划算了。你的文章很好不用以字数取胜不妨留一点时间检查语法。

judydongxueni

呵呵加油啊！四天后等待你的牛人心经！

roberto0220

哎，除了谢谢，还能对向judy这样的好人说什么呢？！确实要要留点时间检查语法！提醒的好！