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30) The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava. The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase. Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The committee recommends that we can reduce the funds budgeted for education, athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities, and give money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults. To supportits recommendation, based on a comparison between the birthrate of last year and five years ago, the committee the birthrate is declining, and as a result the number of students enrolled in public schools will decrease.But when I scrutinize the reasons the committee offers, I find his recommendation is unjustifiable as discussed below.
Firstly, the committee unfairly asserts the birthrate is declining based on the comparison between the last year and five years ago. It is entirely possible that the birthrate five year ago is an apex that other years' birthrate is always lower. Since the committee gives no information about the actual birthrate of each year, it cannot rely on this comparison to conclude the birthrate is declining.
Secondly, even if I accept the committee's assertion that the birthrate is actually declining, the committee gives no evident that the low birthrate will induce the number of students enrolled in the public schools to decrease. Perhaps, the parents cannot afford to the increasing fees of private schools. Or perhaps government takes measures to increase the enrollment of public schools. Thus, the enrollment in public school cannot decrease, and even increase on the contrary. Without ruling out these possibilities, the committee is too hasty to conclude that the enrollment in public schools will decrease.
Thirdly, Regardless of the possibility that it is ungrounded to reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities, the committee ignores its recommendation may cause some negative effects on residents’ life. For example, if the recreational facilities really reduce as it recommends, the residents have little places to take sports and take a rest. As a result, it may mar residents’ health.
Finally, the committee unjustifiably conjectures from the low birthrate that the adult population of the city will increase. It is entirely possible that corresponding to the low birthrate, the increased population would be the elders. Therefore it is unnecessary to fund city facilities and programs as the committee recommended.
In sum, I cannot accept the committee's recommendation according to its reasons. To better support its recommendation, the committee should assure me that the birthrate is actually declining and it really has a negative effect on the enrolling number in public schools. I also need to know that reduced recreational facilities have no negative effect on residents’ life. At last, the committee should also give information about the adult population.
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