云和气候变化预测 As of the late 1980’s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climatemodels could accurately predict whether cloud systems would help or hurt a warming globe.Some studies suggested that a four percent increase in stratocumulus clouds over the oceancould compensate for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide, preventing apotentially disastrous planetwide temperature increase. On the other hand, an increase in cirrusclouds could increase global warming. That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustratedby a study of fourteen such models. Comparing climate forecasts for a world with doublethe current amount of carbon dioxide, researchers found that the models agreed quite wellif clouds were not included. But when clouds were incorporated, a wide range of forecasts wasproduced. With such discrepancies plaguing the models, scientists could not easily predicthow quickly the world’s climate would change, nor could they tell which regions would facedustier droughts or deadlier monsoons. 15.1. The author of the passage is primarily concerned with (A) confirming a theory (B) supporting a statement (C) presenting new information (D) predicting future discoveries (E) reconciling discrepant findings 个人认为是C。。。A的话作者木有confirm，B的话作者没有表态支持下面的理论。仅仅是单独介绍。C的话挺靠谱。D的话木有predict，E的话木有reconcile。。。 15.2. It can be inferred that one reason thefourteen models described in the passage failed to agree was that (A) they failed to incorporate the most up-to-date information about the effectof clouds on climate (B) they were based on faulty information about factors other than clouds thataffect climate (C) they were based on different assumptions about the overall effects ofclouds on climate (D) their originators disagreed about the kinds of forecasts the models shouldprovide (E) their originators disagreed about the factors other than clouds that shouldbe included in the models 个人认为是C。其中一个是看clouds的不同种类有不同作用，另一个是关于引入clouds以后无法预测。一个的假设中有clouds一个木有。A的话木有说最新的；B的话木有说哪个faulty; D的话第一个木有给一个model；E的话说除了clouds意外。。。但第二哥model就是考虑到引入clouds。
15.3. It can be inferred that the primary purpose of the models included in thestudy discussed in the second paragraph of the passage was to (A) predict future changes in the world’s climate (B) predict the effects of cloud systems on the world’s climate (C) find a way to prevent a disastrous planetwide temperature increase (D) assess the percentage of the Earth’s surface covered by cloud systems (E) estimate by how much the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmospherewill increase 个人认为是A；B偏离主题。C中disastrous的东西根本不是文中重点。D中好像percentige无所谓吧。。。反正引入了就打乱了。。。E中更不沾边 15.4. The information in the passage suggests that scientists would have toanswer which of the following questions in order to predict the effect of clouds on the warmingof the globe? (A) What kinds of cloud systems will form over the Earth? (B) How can cloud systems be encouraged to form over the ocean? (C) What are the causes of the projected planetwide temperature increase? (D) What proportion of cloud systems are currently composed of cirrus ofclouds? (E) What proportion of the clouds in the atmosphere form over land masses? 排除法：A不沾边吧好像。。。种类clouds跟第一个有关，但是就算answer了不知道量也没提多少量引起多少变化所以给了也没用。Bocean直接排除。。。C就算知道了。。。跟clouds关系不大。Cirrus的比例知道了好像也无关。。。E中的话，知道了cloudsdebilitating好歹可以知道在14model中引入的clouds的比例是多少。。。稍微沾点边。。。
我觉得哈
第一题 可以把第一句话理解成作者的statement，那这样的话，全文都是证明第一句话这个statement。
第四题还是很茫然啊：我在AD选项中排除掉D有两个原因——第一，D选项说what percentage of clouds are composed of cirrus clouds，所有的clouds中并不只是有cirrus和stratu这两种文中提到过的clouds，还有很多杂七杂八各种各样的clouds，换句话说，哪怕我知道20%是cirrus clouds，也不代表80%就一定是stratu clouds——所以不能只根据percentages of cirrus来判断；第二个原因——D选项中提到的currently也感觉怪怪的。
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发表于 2012-10-19 21:04:41
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