Argument 153 求拍!谢谢啦!

peepul

"One year ago we introduced our first product, 'Bargain Brand' breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices, and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success selling cereal, Bargain Brand should now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible

一年前,我们介绍了我们的第一种产品BB早餐麦片.我们低廉的价格吸引了大量的客户,而他们原本是一些销量最大的麦片公司的顾客.尽管那些名牌麦片公司以试图通过降低价格来与我们竞争,并且也有一些公司也打算推出他们自己的廉价品牌,但我们无需通过涨价来继续盈利.基于我们销售麦片的成功经验,我们建议BB扩展业务,并且尽快推出其他廉价产品.

提纲:

1.数据模糊:多少顾客改变选择?占原来的多大比例?

2.因果类错误:价格低廉,以及消费者人数并非盈利的充分条件.

3.错误外推:去年的市场未必和今年的市场一样;麦片的市场未必和其他产品一样,通过降价的方式未必盈利.

Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the statement draws the conclusion that BB should expand its business and begin marketing other possible low-priced food products. To substantiate the recommendation the arguer points evidence that their low price product BB breakfast cereal drew many customers last year. Furthermore, the author indicates that they needn't raise the price to continue making a profit. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat convincing, however, a profound reflection reveals that it omits several crucial concerns which should be addressed to support the recommendation. In my point of view, the author suffers from cause and effect and vague investigation and analysis.

Firstly, unless the surveyor sampled a sufficient number of the customers and did so randomly across the entire spectrum, the result is not reliable to gauge the popularity of BB breakfast cereal. The vaguely usage of "many" is too subjective to insinuate that a large proportion of the sample. It is highly possible that they investigated only 50 customers of the top-selling companies, while there are 60,000 customers always patronizing the top-selling companies. What's more no exact number and percentage of customers, who have changed their choice, provided. Absent these vital statistics, the arguer cannot justifiably draw the conclusion that their first product is popular enough to make a profit without any modulation.

Secondly, even assuming that the new product is more popular, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the low price and its popularity. It is common sense that people chose communities based on a variety of references. It is highly possible that the nutrition and tastes are the causes of the preference to BB breakfast cereal. What's more, do low price and more customers absolutely mean a high profit? Unfortunately, we know that a variety of factors contribute to the profit. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between low price, customers' preference and the profit.

A further problem with the argument is that it depends on the assumption that background conditions of the market will remained unchanged in the future. However, it is entirely possible that food market situation will changed greatly, for the reason that reform and competition of peer companies shouldn't be neglected. Also, the scenario of BB breakfast cereal market may not applies equally to other low-price food products.

To sum up, the author fails to substantiate his recommendation that Bargain Brand should now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products, because the evidences cited do not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To make the recommendation more persuasive, the arguer would have to demonstrate that it is the low price of that result in the preference BB breakfast cereal to products of other companies. Also crucial would be more information about the current and future food market situations. Therefore, if the recommendation had included the factors given above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

meilv

赞一个！

peepul

对对 写错了 多谢
我7.7号考试

chris亚

楼主第三段 communities我觉得应该是要说商品commodities吧？

chris亚

楼主是什么时候考试呀？

peepul

是的 我背的模板

竹林中人

感觉LZ写的还不错，语言还是很老练的。每个人的A都最后都差不多一个模子。

peepul

谢谢版主鼓励,越写越顺手了 哈哈 都是一个模板

普渡哥

这篇结构很好，意思很清楚。good job!