第一篇AA，本月高频，求拍砖，越狠越好！

andycheung

这篇是我看到目前为止本月寂静最高频的一篇了，先拿来练练手，找找感觉，希望大家多多指教！
另外有三个问题：
1。作文题库还有一些没有看完， 怎么办？看题库真的是太费时间了，但是又怕上场碰到不熟悉的题目傻眼。看论坛里有同学建议就看寂静就行了，说作文题目变动不大，不知可行不？还有一个礼拜就考了，我觉得我真是。。。
2。AI和AA大概写上多少字就可以了啊？还有一个礼拜就考了，我还在问这种弱智问题。。。我觉得我真是。。。
3。一个小问题，关于写作，大家一般句号后面空几格？我喜欢空两格，觉得这样看起来更清楚一些，不知道会不会有问题。。。

V1. The argument wasabout a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchiserestaurants.
A small restaurantowner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. Hisrestaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided toopen another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promotehis 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the newrestaurants. He expects his profits will trip after all restaurants are opened.
V2. 有个名叫George的人两年前开了一个餐馆在Sallon town，这个Sallon TOWN正好有一个人数thousands ofstudents,生意非常好，所以George根据这个觉得有必要在临近的城镇再开三家，以创造更多profit,他就叫在他手下训练的三个跟他的employees去当三家分店经理，GEORGE认为会如在Sallon的餐馆一样，会生意一样好
V3. GEORGE 这两年在某个城镇开了个餐厅，附近有一所大学，thousands of students。最近，他发现他店里面的辣椒味三文治卖的很好，给他带来了巨大的收益。因此，G决定在周围地区多开3间餐厅，并且让3名从原来这家餐厅 开业起就跟着他的员工作为这些餐厅的manager. G相信他的利润很快就会增加3倍。



In this argument, the pita restaurant ownerat Sallon expects to improve his profits by opening three new restaurants in nearby cities.  This decision is based onthe fact that the owner has been very successful on his pita restaurant inGeorge for the past 2 years.  However,the decision of the owner is very questionable due to several flaws in the reasoning.

First of all, the owner forgets to considerthe time span, that is, the owner assumes his success in the past 2 years willcontinue in the coming year.  However,the argument doesn’t provide detailed information to support this point.  Without these key information, it is verypossible that the owner may lose money on his business in the future due tosome market changes.  For example, thesuccess in the past two years could be attribute to a better economy of theresidence in Sallon, thus people have more money and would like to eatoutside.  However, more and more peopleare losing their job this year, and it is predicted that the unemployment isgoing to increase significantly in this area in the future.  With less money in pocket, fewer and fewerpeople are going to eat outside, and the profits of the pita restaurant maydecrease significantly as well.  Sincethe owner doesn’t prove that the market environment stays the same as two yearsago, it is difficult to predict the result of this business in the future basedon the past results.

Secondly, the owner unreasonably assumesthat he can receive the same success in the nearby cities of Sallon without anytroubles.  However, this is absurd.  Especially considering Sallon is a collegetown, it is very possible that the majority of its customers is students, who likepita a lot.  Whereas the residents in thenearby towns are mostly older people, and these people prefer to cook bythemselves and they seldom eat pita.  Ifthis is the case, then the three new restaurants in nearby towns may make very littleprofit compared to the one in Sallon.  

Another problem about the reasoning is thatthe owner believes the 3 employees who have been trained by himself can beexcellent managers of the new restaurants. However, the owner fails to show that these three candidates are good inmanagement.  Without this information, itis possible that these three are well trained doing stuff unrelated tomanagement, such as making pita, cleaning or waitressing; but they know nothingabout management and have no idea about how to actually run a restaurant.  Especially, since these three restaurants arenewly opened, so there might be a lot of problems which have never beenencountered by the three in the past, and they don’t know how to handle theseproblems at all.  If this is the truth,then the three new restaurants cannot gain the expected profits under thecontrol of the three newly promoted managers.

In sum, the owner overlooks several keyfactors in this investment and his conclusion about tripping his profits isgroundless.  To better evaluate his conclusion,the owner needs to provide more detailed information about the market informationof this year and the market information in the nearby towns.  Also, he has to prove that the three employeesare qualified to manage the newly opened restaurants.