写了好几次都没人改，要哭了，献上Argument60与君共赏

gaocan1992

60/145/146/150/154/155.The following appeared in a
letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States,
where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used
oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season
that region experienced 90 days with below-normal
temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this
weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the
region in response to recent population growth. Because
of these trends, we predict an increased demand for
heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated
Industries, one of whose major business operations is
the retail sale of home heating oil."
在冬季非常寒冷的美国东北部的房屋，一直都使用传统
的油料作为采暖的主要燃料。去年该地区经历了90 天低
于往年平均气温的严寒，并且气象预测家们预测这种天气
会持续未来数年。而且，去年由于人口增长，本地建造了
很多的房屋。按此趋势，我们预测对于油料的需求将会增
加，同时也建议对CI 公司投资，该公司的不要业务之一
就是家用采暖油料的零售。
In this argument, the arguer predicts an increase demand for heating oil and recommends investment in Consolidated Industries for one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. To justify this claim, the arguer provide the evidence that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. In addition, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. This argument is logical at first glance, but there are several critical flaws as follows. \



First, that the region has experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures last year and the prediction of the forecasters dose not prove an increased demand for heating oil. There is no evidence that people will still use heating oil after suffering the unusual cold days. Maybe after the 90 days with below-normal temperatures, many people leave this region in winter and move to somewhere hotter in winter when they are informed that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Even if they do not leave the region, they may use another method for heating. They can use electric for air condition or some other energy source. The is no evidence that people will still use heating oil.



The arguer also assumes that that many new homes are being built in this region last year in response to population growth will increase the demand for heating oil. The population growth in last year dose not prove the population will keep high or higher this year. Maybe last year the region witness a blooming of business and many people come to seek fortune, and the business will meet depression so many people maybe leave this region and the new-built homes will not need heating oil in winter. Even if the population growth happened, the new-built homes maybe choose another energy source for heating, so the demand for the heating oil may not be increase. The arguer does not provide the convincing evidence.



The arguer recommends investment in Consolidated Industries because that the arguer predicts the demand for heating oil will be increased and the major business operation of this firm is the retail sale of home heating oil. If the oil demand were not increased as the analysis before. The investment will not have profits. And home heating oil maybe the little part of all heating oil used in this region. Maybe the major of heating oil is used by some big company. So the home heating oil may not have fine profits. Whether the investment of the company get profits is can not judging only by insufficiency evidence the arguer provided.



To sum up, the argument lacks sufficiency evidence, the evidence cited in analysis dose not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning whether the resident use the heating oil later and whether the retail sale of home heating oil can make profits.

竹林中人

第二段，你不能回避这句话have traditionally used
oil as their major fuel for heating
assumes that that many new homes are being built in this region last year in response to population growth will increase the demand for heating oil，可否换个不这么费解的句式，比如定语从句，即使要用同位语从句，也用逗号隔开
你可以把你的质疑点按照一定的逻辑顺序串起来，来形成一种递进的气势