Argument 5 求砸,求打击

小小游儿

Argument5

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In this argument, the editorial concludes that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.
To justify this conclusion the editorial points out that on Balamer Island , where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. The editorial also cites data that neighboring island Seavile last year realized a 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents when Seavile’s towncouncil enforced similar limits on moped rentals.


First of all, the editorial assumes that what happened to neighboring island Seavile last year will happen on Balmer this year, that does not make sense. The editorial fails to consider and rule out other factors that might account for accidents, such as the difference of the geographic features, poor weather , dimished law enforcement measures, or even population density can result in the happeness of accidents. In short, lacking evidence that conditions on the two islands are relevantly similar, the editorial cannot convince me on the base of the Seavile. While it is true that the two islands are similar in some cases, absent additional information to prove that the condition last year will remain today. Without such evidence the argument can be rejected out of hand.


Secondly, absent a clear definition of the term or dear evidence “similar limits ”when editorial refers to “Seavile’s town council last year enforced similar limits on moped rentals”. The problem is that how limits enforced on Eenvile Island. It is much possible that Seavile Island carried out coordinated measures besides simple limits the number of mopeds, such as strengthening the education on traffic rules to drivers and pedestrians, ameliorating traffic signs and enhancing the ability of forecast on road condition. Thus, without better evidence that explain the enforcement of limits of Seavile Island, the editorial remains unconvincing.


Thirdly, the editorial considers that it is the drivers and the increased number of mopeds that leads to the frequent accidents. Although this is entirely possible, the argument provides no evidence to support this assumption. Contingencies such as the shortage of traffic police, low efficiency of traffic management and other possibilities just as I mentioned before can all lead to accidents. The editorial must consider and eliminate this and other possible reasons why accidents are frequently, otherwise, I cannot accept editorial’s implicit claim that drivers and the increased number of mopeds bring about the accidents.


Finally, the editorial recommends Balmer Island enforces limits during summer season. But the goal is a 50 percent annual reduction in moped accident. The rub is what proportion moped accidents in summer to traffic accidents all the year. If moped accidents happen frequently in winter, spring or autumn, then even if this is a effective measure, it is hard to achieve the government’s goal.


To sum up, the argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cited more evidence that is more persuasive.

时间:70 min      严重的超时了

zhouyue0223

游儿加油。

普渡哥

最好在第一段就表明你的观点

竹林中人

你提到的四点，有必要重新组织下，按照某种逻辑顺序来写，以形成环环相扣，步步推进的结构，结构会很清晰，内容会很吸引人，很有说服力。
比如，先说另一个岛上取得的效果是不是完全是因为减少mopeds带来的，会不会有其他的原因；再说即使真的是因为减少moped带来的，但两个岛的情况是否完全一样，如果不一样，会不会必然带来同样的效果。3.即使能奏效，会不会有负面效果，比如游客减少、经济发展受阻等。4.会不会有更好的措施，既能减少accident，又可以促进岛上经济社会的发展等等。
语言没明显错误。
之所以时间用多了，还是跟自己的逻辑是不是清晰的有关，按照一定的思路而不是想到什么写什么，速度会提高的