新g Argu102 求拍~

ykhjy

102) The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

In this argument, the arguer predicates that a new jazz club in Monroe will be tremendously profitable. To bolster the predication, the arguer points out that jazz is popular since over 100,000 people attending Monroe's annul jazz festival last summer, and that 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated  radio program in Monroe, and many famous jazz musicians living there; in addition, based on a nationwide study that the typical jazz fan spends nearly $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, the arguer assumes that the new jazz club will make considerable profits. However, the facts that a large number of people attending the annul jazz festival in Monroe last summer, and that the 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-radio program there, and numerous famous jazz musicians liang in Monroe can really support the assumption that jazz is popular in Monroe? Furthermore, the conclusion of the nationwide study relating to the expenditure of the typical jazz fan can totally prove that a new jazz club is profitable?  It is doubtful. The reasons are stated as follows.

In the first place, is the fact that many people attends the Monroe's annul jazz festival last summer can contribute to proving that jazz is popular in Monroe? It is suspicious. Since it is possible that most of these people attending the festival are tourists, and rather because of the festival itself, they came to Monroe mainly for its long history culture, comfortable weather, and so on.  Even if those people are specially for the festival, it doesn't mean that jazz is popular there, either. Because maybe it is a aberration last summer, and it is possible that the host the festival made a large appealing advertisement and gave awards for attending people.

In addition, is the evidence that 'Jazz Nightly' is the hightest-rated radio program in Monroe can support that jazz is popular? I'm afraid not so. Since it is possible that people like the host of the 'Jazz Nightly' rather than the jazz music itself. And maybe other radio program is much worse than 'Jazz Nightly', and people have to choose the least bad one.

Thirdly, that there are many famous jazz musicians living in Monroe can result in the conclusion that jazz is popular? The answer may be "no". Since it is possible that these jazz musicians living in Monroe  for its comfortable living environment rather because of any factor relating to jazz music. And neither these musicians can be sure to contribute to bringing jazz popularity in Monroe. Since it is possible that people used to like these musicians, but now they have not any interest in them. And even if people love these musicians very much, they don't necessarily come to Monroe to join a jazz club, cause they can listening to jazz through the TV, the CD, the computer...

Finally, the nationwide study that the arguer cited can really substantiate that a new jazz club is tremendously profitable? It is doubtful. Since the typical jazz fan in Monroe doesn't necessarily spend so much money on jazz entertainment, and it is possible that the jazz fans in Monroe is commonly not affluent and won't spend much even if they love jazz crazily. Meanwhile, even if the typical jazz fan in Monroe will also spend so much on jazz entertainment, it doesn't mean that other people will spend so much as the jazz fans. And if the jazz fans are a small part in Monroe, a new jazz club won't necessarily make considerable profits.

As it stands, the facts that a large number of people attending the annul jazz festival in Monroe last summer, and that the 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-radio program there, and numerous famous jazz musicians living in Monroe cannot really support the assumption that jazz is popular in Monroe. And the nationwide study relating to the expenditure of the typical jazz fan cannot totally prove that a new jazz club is profitable,neither. Thus all these take the predication into a unconvincing one.

ykhjy

结构怎么样能紧凑一些呢？把一二三合起来一段么？

普渡哥

to Luke: Just the same topic, not the same people.

普渡哥

可以有一些理由展开来写写。结构可以调整得更紧凑一点。

lukebrehm

same?