A30，资助问题，望拍

大剑Jade

或许是我真的慢了，但建议大家不必像我一样写接近600的argument，400+都是比较好的，500+很理想，就够了，如果我注意下字数的话兴许可以30min内完成。


我的提纲：
1.去年和五年前的birthrate比较没有意义。
2.birthrate和学生数量比较没有意义。
3.成人也可以使用学生用的器械。


Argument
题号：新GRE 30
题目：The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.
写作要求：Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.


The author contends plausibly in this argument that they will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used mainly by adults, due to a prediction of increasing population of the adults in the city. However, this argument remains flawed based on a lack of evidence of the author’s omission of validness of the reasons he quotes after a close scrutiny.
First off, the threshold problem is that the fact that last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago could expound on nothing related with the trend of birthrate. For example, it’s possible that the birthrate last year was higher than those of two years ago to four years ago. That is to say, perhaps the birthrate of five years ago was highest during the five years. Thus the author should pay a close heed to the evidence of the all five years’ birthrate indicating a gradual decrease in the city, otherwise it’s not possible to predict the decrease of the birthrate of next year, let alone that of the next decade.
Moreover, even if the birthrate could keep sliding through ensuing evidence, this argument still stays suspicious owing to the casually concluded relationship between the number of students enrolled in their public schools and the birthrate in the next decade. As is universally known, a school may never confine itself into enrolling merely local students. In this case, it’s hard to determine the number of students enrolled in their public schools could be predicted based on the statistic of the birthrate in this city. Therefore, reduction of budget for education could result in serious problems pertaining to all students attending schools, which ought to be a basic right for every citizen in this city as well as in any other location. Unless we are provided with evidence concerning reassurance of controls of students outside the city, this argument scarcely convinces anyone that the number of students could decrease along with the birthrate.
Besides, even though the foregoing problems may be solved within short time, the author falsely assumes that the athletic playing fields as well as other recreational facilities are solely devised for students. As a matter of fact, a great many adults all over the world are sports fans, and it might prove to be necessary for them to exercise within the schools’ borders in addition to the facilities and programs used primarily by adults, due to the athletic playing fields and recreational facilities within the schools’ grounds. This assumption could only be true in a situation where the adults in this city are so different from ones outside the city that either they almost don’t value the athletic playing fields for daily use, or they are too lazy to take exercise. The problem presented above bear no relative evidence in this argument, thereby casting doubts about the soundness of the final prediction.
In retrospect, the author omits to present a series of evidence directly related with the ability of convincing of this argument. A more sound argument should include evidence as the statistics of every year’s birthrate, the control over the number of students outside the city, and the adults in this city are reluctant to use the athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. Only then could the author claim unequivocally that they could focus mainly on funding the city facilities and programs solely used by adults through convincible evidence demonstrating an increase of the number of adults in this city.


579words, 36min

大剑Jade

唉。。还是不行啊，逻辑漏洞挺多的，那个issue写的桑心啊。。

ppguo

大剑同学毅力可嘉，高手中的高手啊。

大剑Jade

对，我还想到一点，如果老人的mentality增大的话，那么其实成人数量应该下降

ppguo

我觉得出生率下降的确会是学生数量下降。
但是出生率下降为什么会使成人数量增长呢？好像有点不合逻辑。