GRE作文Argument60-真心求拍

wogoto

小女子果断时间就要考G了，现在作文还没摸到门道。。。刚写完第一篇argument，希望各位给点意见，在此谢过！~

Argument 60

Most homes in the northeastern United States,where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their majorfuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days withbelow-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weatherpattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes arebeing built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because ofthese trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investmentin Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is theretail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine thestated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how theargument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for theargument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

Response for argument 60 (498 words.)

In this letter, the writer makes attempts to recommendits client to invest in Consolidated Industries (CI). To support thisrecommendation, the writer points out the increasing probability of thetremendous cold weather pattern predicted by climate forecasters and provideevidence that there are many new homes built in the same region. However, closescrutiny of this letter reveals that it is unconvincing in several aspects.

First and foremost, the argument heavily relies on theassumption of the ungrounded climate prediction derived from climateforecasters. Yet, it could be the case that the climate forecasters are welltrained and experienced, no one can confidently guarantee the climate trendwithout considering the fluctuations of the temperature and other possiblefactors, which could result in a dramatic change of climate. For instance, whatif there happened to occur some problems of the climate predicting supercomputer?If this is the case, no matter how accomplished the climate forecasters are,the result they predicted would be definite wrong. Even if we exclude the responsibilityof the technical mistakes, the unpredictable nature disasters might shift the temperaturein this region.

In addition, the writer falsely implies that theincreasing numbers of the new homes built in this region would lead to anincreased demand for heating oil. It is entirely likely that the newly builthomes might be left unused because there are not many people in this area, orbecause no so many people can afford the new homes. Even if the newly builthomes could attract a lot of people, what if these homes are equipped withmodern heating equipment? Specifically, maybe these newly built homes might usea cleaner energy source such as electricity instead of heating oil.  If this is the case, there might be noincreasing demand for heating oil.

Finally, even assuming that the trends of weather and theincreasing homes can possible lead to a higher demand of heating oil, the writermight overlook the potential competition in the heating oil sales. CI, as aretail sale company, might not have advantages over other wholesalers, whocould provide more attractive heating oil price. Perhaps there might be otherlarge companies who can provide  moreappealing features than CI, such as a higher heating oil quality and a betterafter-sale service. Without a careful market analysis, the writer could not beso persuasive to convince its client to invest in CI.

In sum, the recommendation reached in this letter is notconvincing and persuasive. To make it logically acceptable, the writer wouldhave to substantiate that the cold weather pattern would be continued in thenext few years and that most of the people living in the new homes wouldrecourse the heating oil as the major fuel for heating.  Moreover, I would suspend my judgment aboutthe credibility of this letter until the writer can provide more informationabout the local market of the heating oil and the strategies of CI facing withthe potential fierce competitions.

竹林中人

recommendits ？
总的来说，你写的还是不错的。在一些细节的论述上，我觉得能更合理些比较好，比如It is entirely likely that the newly builthomes might be left unused because there are not many people in this area, orbecause no so many people can afford the new homes。这里，你可以很合理的怀疑说这些房子动机也许不住人，因为寒冷的天气让很多人跑到温暖的地方过冬，因而是unused。，这样你的推理就很自然合理了

wogoto

嗯嗯~，谢谢指点！ 现在每天都在改前一天写的东西。