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The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants. "Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States.Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.Futhermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter'to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its reataurants in the southeast and northeast as well." Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether....
In the memorandum, the manager recommends that Happy Pancake House should substitute margarine for butter in all of its restaurants in the southeast and northeast. To bolster the recommendation, the manager points out that only 2 percent of customers have complained about the change and also cites a report which shows that a number of clients who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. However, the argument is rife with holes and some questions should be dealt with 。
In the first place, does the statistics that only 2 percent of customers have complained necessarily indicate that there was not anything wrong with the change? It is questionable. Perhaps the 2 percent of customers are VIP customers who are used to consuming in Happy Pancake House, while the rest 98 percent of clients are just passer-bys. Thus it may be a great loss for the restaurants to lost the core customers. Even if the 2 percent of customers are same with the rest 98 percent of. Are the 98 people out of 100 really satisfied with the change? It is entirely possible that these people have no time to complain to the restaurant, or that they do not like express unhappiness in the face-to-face way, and instead they may phoned to their friends to tell them not consume in the restaurants. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot convince me that the change is well.
In the second place, is the report reliable? what is the actual number of customers who Do not complain the substitution? Until the author provides the detailed information, we cannot rule out the possibility that the servers did not pay attention sufficiently to the compliments or that they may alter the report results for personal reasons, thus result in few customers have complained when they are given margarine instead in the report. Even if the report is reliable, the percent of customers who donot complain the change may be insignificant. Hence, just based on the mere report, the manager unreasonably concludes that the substitution is successful.
In the third place, do the customers in eastern United States and that in the southwestern have same responses ? I am afraid not.   erhaps the clients in southeast and northeast prefer the natural food rather than artificial ones, thus they may not like the taste of margarine. For this matter, the manager's recommendation that the Happy Pancake House should extend this change to its restaurant in eastern United states may be ill-advised.
In summary, does the only 2 percent of customers who have complained suggest that it is not serious problem? Are the rest 98 percent of clients actually happy with the change? Whether the report is reliable? Is really the number of people who do not complain the substitution significant? Do the clients in eastern and that in the southwestern have same responses to teh change? Answers to these questions above may lead to the argument unconvinced. |
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