A98 咖啡和书店 求狠拍

shiwen5006

提纲：1. 作者假设儿童的数量在减少；

           2. 即使儿童的数量减少了，作者又假设书的销售量也会相应减少。

           3. 即使上述假设都成立，作者还假设在书店里开咖啡厅会赚钱。

98. The following is a recommendation from the businessmanager of Monarch Books.

"Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago,Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendlyatmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book andBean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to opena Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in thespace currently devoted to children's books. Given recent national census dataindicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under ageten, sales of children's books are likely to decline. By replacing itschildren's books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits andward off competition from Book and Bean."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/orunstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argumentdepends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument ifthe assumptions prove unwarranted.

In this argument, the speaker recommends that the MonarchBooks should replace its children’s books section with a café and therefore itwill increase its profits. Albeit it may appears plausible at a cursory glance,in-depth scrutiny reveals that it several flaws based on problematicassumptions.

First off, a threshold assumption the speaker relies isthat the number of children under the age of ten decreases. On one hand, the nationalcensus might not be applicable to Collegeville. It is entirely possible that whilethe percentage children under the age of ten decreases dramatically, that ofthe Collegeville keeps increase because of numerous young couples and the highbirth rate. One the other hand, even if the percentage of children inCollegeville declined as well, the absolute number of children might notdecrease accordingly. Chances are that the population of the city growssharply, as a result, even if the percentage of children declines, the totalnumber of children under the age of ten might as well increase.

Moreover, even assuming that the number children underthe age of ten in Collegeville declines, the speaker presumes that sales ofchildren’s book will also decline accordingly. However, this is unwarranted andill-conceived because people might pay more and more attention on childreneducation than before, consequently investing a great sum of money in childrenbooks. In light of this, even though the number of children decreases, theamount of books per capita has a considerable increase, which promotes thesales of children’s book. Unless the speaker considers as well as rules outthis possibility, the speaker cannot justifiably conclude that sales condition ofchildren’s book will deteriorate.

Finally, even if the forgoing assumptions are valid andwarranted, a crucial problem remains that the speaker assumes that by replacingits children’s section with café, they will surely make great profits. For onething, the speaker assumes that the combination bookstore and coffee shopopened by Book and Bean is profitable. Yet, the speaker provides no evidence tosubstantiate this, for this reason, it is equally possible that this kind of caféshop is less attractive to consumers and therefore unprofitable at all. Foranother, as is well known, profit is a function of both revenue and costs. Eventhough the revenue the café shop brings is tremendous, the expenses such as thecost of materials and the employees’ wages might outweigh the revenues,rendering it not as profitable as expected. Each of these two scenarios, iftrue, will serve to undermine the claim that such a café shop is profitable forinvestment.

In retrospect, it would be precipice to come to therecommendation base on some unwarranted assumptions. To bolster therecommendation, the speaker ought to corroborate these assumptions. Only by substantiatingthese assumptions can the speaker justifiably put forward a cogent and persuasiverecommendation.

普渡哥

我觉得还有一点，题目说有另外一个公司会开图书咖啡混合店，所以让这个公司开。这种效仿本身就不合理。要竞争胜利，必须有创新。