请教FeiFei-104

104. That the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far is unquestionable. Since the end of the Second World War, the very fact that there were nuclear armaments in existence has kept major powers from using nuclear weapons, for fear of starting a worldwide nuclear exchange that would make the land of the power initiating it uninhabitable. The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened.

Which one of the following, if true, indicates a flaw in the argument?

A.        Maintaining a high level of nuclear armaments represents a significant drain on a country’s economy.

B.        From what has happened in the past, it is impossible to infer with certainty what will happen in the future, so an accident could still trigger a third world war between superpowers.

C.        Continuing to produce nuclear weapons beyond the minimum needed for deterrence increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident.

D.       The major powers have engaged in many smaller-scale military operations since the end of the Second World War, while refraining from a nuclear confrontation.

E.        It cannot be known whether it was nuclear deterrence that worked, or some other factor, such as a recognition of the economic value of remaining at peace.

答案：E

题干：flaw

原文：

Conclusion：policy worked.

Evidence: end of 2 world war ; 3 world war not happen.

casual explanation.

e是正确答案。可是b反对前提就不可以吗？

个人观点

关键是"thus far"——结论应含有：“至少从今天来看，政策是起到作用的”之意。

这样，“a third world war  has not happened.”是一个证据，以后打不打战不影响结论。