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提纲：
这个作者的论点是预测an increased demand for heating oil and recommendinvestment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil."
论点1：
Most homes in the northeastern UnitedStates, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as theirmajor fuel for heating
作者根据传统预测将来也会是这样 但是传统不会改变吗
论点2：
Last heating season that region experienced90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict thatthis weather pattern will continue for several more years
90天很长吗 怎么比较的 如果以前出现过比这更长的 比不能说明问题 the forecaster is expertise ? 几年 具体
论点3：
Furthermore,many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent populationgrowth.
人口增长了就一定要买房吗 可能他们在冷的时候去其他的地方居住
内容：
The author`spropose is recommending investment in Consolidated Industries, of one of whosemajor business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. On the baseof author predict an increased demand for heating oil.
First, Whycan we invest others companies whose also operate retail sale of home oil? Fromthe essay that Consolidated Industries is one of whose major businessoperations is the retail sale of home heating oil which is only reason. It did not show other enough convictiveevidence to support why choose Consolidated Industries. Maybe he/she shoulddisplay the outstanding achieve about the Consolidated Industries
Thenthe author predict the increase demand for heating oil. The author`s firstthesis is “Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters aretypically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.” Sometimes, I are more willing to predict thatthe resident in the northeastern United States probably will change theirtradition. As we Known, the higher and higher gas price as the case mightprevent people from they spend in heating oil. With the more and more newenergy resources occurred, the resident maybe would their typical minds.
Thesecond thesis is “Last heating season that region experienced 90 days withbelow-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that thisweather pattern will continue for several more years.” It seems a bit long thatregion experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures. The author did notshow us the relevant data in the past years. Perhaps that region had experiencedmuch more longer cold weather period than now. The prediction would be more compellentif climate forecasters are expertise. But the author did not present it. And weknow several years may be one or two years. So it is worthwhile to make theinvestment for a short-term economic effiency.
Thethird is “Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in responseto recent population growth.” It implied that the growth of population andbuilding will result in the increase demand for hot oil. Maybe there are largepart of floating population or transient population, Who will leave that regionwhile the winter comes. And these new buildings take new energy resources insteadof the heating oil.
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发表于 2012-9-26 20:31:34
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