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argument“
Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
In this argument, the author concludes that the consumption of the oil of this area will increase in the near future. To support his conclusion, the author cites that the following several years the temperature in this area will decline and there are numerous houses has been built last year. At first glance, this argument appears to be somewhat reasonable, but further reflection informs me that this argument has a myriad of assumptions and holes.
First and foremost, the author presumptuously assumes that the tendency of the low temperature will continue in the following years. To bolster his conclusion , the author claims that the weather forecast has predicted that the following years will be very cold. The author presumptuously assumes that all the thing will remain unchanged in the extended future. It is highly possible that the weather which is very cold will change or even reverse in the near future. It is utterly absurd for the author to conclude the weather will continue be very cold. Even though the cold was cold last year, it does not necessary suggest that this trend will appear in the future.
In addition, it is considerably irrational for the author to conclude that the desire of the oil will increase since a large number of houses has been built last year. However, the increase of the number of the houses never amounts to a respondent increase of the oil. It is perhaps that the new houses will not allow the residents to live in the first year for the lethal chemical materials. Even if the new houses allow the residents to live, it does not mean that the citizens will use the oil as the main fuel to make the houses warmer. It is highly possible that most of the houses have the other equipment to make the house warm. Even if they use the oil as the main fuel , there is possibility that they will choose other companies since theadvantage of the price.
Moreover, the author presumptuously assumes that it is a sane choice to invest the CI, which is a fuel company. It is likely that the company will not choose the oil as the mail fuel for the business, even if they invest the company. It is highly possible that the citizen will choose a wholesale rather than a retail as their first choice. Even if they choose the retail, there may be many other companies that they can choose as the price advantage.
In conclusion, this argument actually has several flaws as discussed above. To make this argument more convincing, the author would have to take ever possible factors into consideration and provide more information to evaluate this claim.
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发表于 2011-12-13 19:59:54
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