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The following is a recommendation from the business manager of
Monarch Books.
“Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has
developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere
and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and
Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention
to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own
in-store café in the space currently devoted to children’s books. Given
recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the
percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’s books are
likely to decline. By replacing its children’s books section with a café,
Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book
and Bean.
“Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is
needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would
weaken or strengthen the argument.”;
In this argument, the author concludes that in order to increase the profit and on the same time ward off the competition from the Book and Bear. To support his conclusion, the author cites that the Book and the Bear has a plan to open a Collegeville store and the author also claims that a nationwide census indicates a decrease of the child and will inevitably lead to the decline of the consumers. At first glance, this argument appears to be somewhat reasonable, Actually further reflection informs that it has a myriad of assumptions and holes.
First and foremost, the author fails to tell us whether the Book and Bear will have a increasing profit or not. We cannot get any information about this. Even if this book store has achieved a considerable profit, it is just a month, it cannot represent the future days. Even if the BB store has a huge increase in the profit, it is not necessary that the Monarch store will inevitably be a profit store since the author presumptuously assumes that the M store and the BB store have the same situation, it is considerably irrational for the author to predict that the M store has the same situation as the MM store, it is highly possible that there are other competitors in this area which will eventually contribute to the decline of the stores.
Moreover, it is tremendously irrational for the author to claim that the nation census will represent the situation of this city. It is perhaps the case that even the nation census indicates that the percentage of the population under 10 will decrease in the future days, it is never amounts to that this city has the same tendency since there is still possible that this city , most percentage are young couple and it is highly possible that they will have one or more child in the near future days. So the population percentage will be another phenomenon.
In addition, it is remarkably presumptuous for the author to assume that the foundation of the store will inevitably be profit. Personal experience and common sense inform us that the profit is bound up with two elements, the revenue and the cost. There is a possibility that the world economy is undergoing a huge economic crisis and thereby the consumers will decline as the economic crisis. Even if the economy is in a good condition, it is perhaps that the cost for building the store will surpass the revenue and renders a larger cost of the profit.
In conclusion, this argument actually has several flaws as discussed above, to make this argument more convincing, the author would have to take into every possible factor account and provide more information to evaluate this claim.
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发表于 2011-12-10 21:40:53
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