Argument
新G题号：76
题目：The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
写作要求：Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.
第一篇A，基本上是照抄范文的框架，然后改写……没有限时，574字，主要用来练习思路
最好能拍原文，当然我也写了提纲
内容问题：
第一段主题写得过长，后面又写得短，有头重脚轻之感，显得后面的论述不充分（想把第一段写得短点但是自然而然就展开了……后面又展不开，很郁闷）
而且不确定这样的organize有无问题
结尾过短，但是一时想不出怎么说了，可以考虑总结一下攻击点？
感觉词不达意的现象很严重，其实我也不知道具体写的攻击点，应该abstract简写成什么样……（即便是用中文）
表达问题（真心求指点）：
相反的效果、作用：
本身不可靠：……我用的in itself……
股价：我用的share price，不知道应该怎么表的……
不利的选择：……我只能用了unpleasant choice……实在是……
好收成来自好天气：……就是谷贱伤农那方面的意思……
提纲（攻击点）：
survey:
1.80%缺乏具体人数，10个里面8个人也行；
2.调查对象地域范围，可能做的不错，是全国性的，但是食品可能是地区性偏好，总体无法说明个体
即便这个survey做得很好很帮，但是
3.desire 只是一种愿望而非事实行动，因为选取low-fat可能要花费很多东西，需要坚定的信念（我是按“人人都想减肥”，但是“并非人人都会减肥”）
low-fat products abound in many food stores：
这种现象可能来源于low-fat销售的增长趋势。但是也有其他可能：
1.原材料因为今年气候好，丰收，所以产品多
2.市场看低，比如可能low-fat是有危险的产品（类似我国对转基因的态度），商家只能尽快卖掉以补回投入（挑战我表达的极限……）
前者导致激烈竞争以至于low-fat盈利低；后者可能意味着，这个市场没戏了
二者都可能使advice没有根据，采取甚至可能导致相反的效果（我想我这里少了个“因为”）
profit decrease:
即便真正有low-fat的trend，但是并没有提供公司的计划、股价：
可能公司对此问题没有反应，那么卖股票是正确的
但是：
可能公司早就已经因为这个问题受到了损失，股价也跌了。那么他们自己也可能因此意识到问题所在，并且去解决（比如新产品，新技术）
因此，可能销售会上升，因此利润也增加（因为之前已经够低了）。这就导致了一个与advice截然不同的结论，选advice的真的就是想杀人了（再次挑战我表达的极限）
以上就是攻击点
另外本来还打算写一个the extent of reduction：
人们就算减少消费high-fat,减少多少呢，如果减少得很少的话，那么公司甚至可以依靠自身规模获利。因为一些小公司可能因此倒闭，而大公司，如果这公司是大公司的话，的市场份额可以上升。那么也是一个相反结论了（因为这个点涉及到各个方面，而不只是survey，所以我不知道安排在哪里，所以就没有写）
Althoughit may be advantageous to sell the shares of this company, the advice from thenewsletter fails to provide sufficient information for the prediction aboutdecline in profit. It is easy to understand the trend of low-fat consumption,but this argument leaves several important questions unanswered, which makes itless cogent to take such an advice.
Firstly,the author tries to draw a conclusion that there is a trend of reducing the consumptionon high-fat foods according to a recent survey. However, several points areunclear in that survey. For example, How many people are involved in thissurvey? 80 percent may result from 8 in 10 as well as 8000 in 10000, but theformer is less appealing since such a narrow sample would not be representativeenough. Next, where do those participants come from? The survey may conclude accordingto a nationwide research, but that does not relate to the preference inspecific region, since the food preference could vary significantly from placeto place. And if the Old Dairy is a local food provider, then the nationallow-fat trend would be meaningless to it. Furthermore, granted that the surveyis carried out properly, what most critical is that how likely would the desire,to reduce high-fat consumption, be translated into action? After all, such adesire may just reflect how eagerly people want to lead a healthy life but nottheir real plan about what they ready to buy next week, since changes in diet callfor a strong determination and patient.
Additionally,the reason for the low-fat products’ appearance in stores is in question. Surelythis could result from an increasing number of sales from these products. But itdoes not mean people would cut down their consumption on high-fat foods. And therecan be other reasons for it. For example, the raw material increase due to agood farming condition this year, or there is potential risk in low-fatproducts which makes the prospect less appealing, so store owners have to sellthem quickly in order to take the money back. The former suggests there wouldbe a fierce competition because there are too much products, the latter meansthe low-fat market is diminishing. Both reasons would provide no basis for theadvice, and even makes it unfavorable.
Supposingthe survey is valid and the there is a trend of low-fat consuming, however, itis still unanswered what the company’s current strategy and price is. If thecompany continues selling high-fat products and does nothing related to the ongoingtrend of low-fat consuming, it surely would suffer from the narrowing market. Butthe company may have suffered from these changes already, and the share price decreasedseveral months ago. This could possibly make the company aware of the problem,and thus take action to solve it. Consequently, the sales would go up and sodoes the profit in the future, which turns the selling advice into anunpleasant choice.
It stillmay be a wise decision to sell the shares, since there may be a widely pervasivebelief, whether it is reasonable or not, that the company would suffer fromthis trend or simply the price would drop significantly, which makes the stock priceeasily to corrupt. In this respect, it is favorable and even necessary to do so.However, the advice provides insufficient information to draw such a conclusion,and thus fails to persuade shareholders in itself. | 
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发表于 2011-9-25 18:14:43
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