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146. The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
(相关题型：147，60)
记得以前写过这篇，忘记存在哪里了。重新写了一篇。
提纲摘要：
1.
传统用油取暖如何证明未来依然用油取暖？
2.
未来天气变冷如何证明？即是证明天气变冷，需要更多取暖，如何得出用油更多的结论？（实际效果未必具有加和性）
3.
新增人口多不多?又有多少会选油取暖？
The estimation of the demand for some commercial product is always considered as a fundamental reference for the evaluation of the profitability of a market. In this argument, the writer tries to make an estimation for the heating oil demand in northeastern US, predicting an increasing need for it in the next 5 years due to 3 fact issues: (1) the major fuel for heating of the residents there is oil; (2) the weather is predicted to be much colder than ever in few years; (3) there will be more residents there. While the prediction seems plausible, the fact issues are actually interpreted in a partial view that many necessary aspects of this issue become vague and uncertain. Further questions about these flaws are necessary for a sound conclusion.
First off, it is told that people there use oil as a traditional fuel for heating. Here is the question: how many people were following this so-called tradition and how many of them will maintain this custom? Regarding of the possible poor living conditions in the past, the oil could serve as a major heating sources somehow, but there is no proof for the real need of it. Maybe the population there in the past was small, and not all of them preferred oil for heating, therefore leading to an uncertain, or even disappointing result of the oil usage. Besides, we have developed many high technologies for efficient and green heating, like solar power, electric energy, underground heat and so forth. With these more advanced and efficient heating methods as good substitutes, I truly doubt the lackluster market of oil in the future unless the writer can provide further evidence to prove that people there will choose oil as their major fuel.
Secondly, the conclusion about the deteriorating weather in northeastern US is only based on two facts: the unusual cold 90 days in the last year and the forecast information. However, the forecast of weather is fairly an uncertain issue and only one year may fail to portray a full picture about the climate changes there. Also, the climate there may reversely become warm due to the human activities. I have to question the validity of this forecast and doubt whether the climate is to be colder in the future years. And even if that is true, the evidence about the poorer climate issue can only prove the increasing need for heating, but fail to substantiate the fact of an option for oil as the fuel. Given the extremely cold weather and low temperature, I truly doubt whether the oil can fully serve as an efficient fuel to generate enough heat. If not, people will turn to other more effective heating methods instead of oil. Let alone the consideration of some other issues, like the transportation of oil in the cold days and oil sources, which may drive the cost up and influence the demand indirectly. In this light, considering the uncertain weather forecast for cold weather in the future, the availability of oil is also dubious for a prediction for a stable and broad market.
Finally, the writer states that more people will settle there for residence and presumes that the marginal population will obviously choose the oil as their main heating sources. How to prove it? They do not necessarily share the tradition of using oil as the original people due to a different preference, after all, and it is difficult to predict the real market of oil only based on the blurring data about how many exactly new comers there will be. It is required to supply some evidence for a proof that new comers are large and they will choose oil for heating, therefore leading to a sound conclusion for the increasing demand.
In sum, the three fact issues provided by the writer are actually not well tested. Also they are partially interpreted by the writer out of a subjective bias, hence, leaving many unsolved questions on this prediction. To draw a sound and stable prediction, the questions discussed above need to be answered soundly with sufficient and direct evidence. Otherwise, the argument will retain unwarranted and no conclusion can be found.
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发表于 2011-10-10 23:36:15
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楼主
，其实还是有挺多缺点和论证不充分的地方的，比如天气预测的时间问题，新修的住房问题，去年寒冷天气的供暖情况~ 还是有不足的地方啊~
