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AA124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year,
its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store.
While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing
have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore
switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.” In this argument, the arguer is trying to establish that Carlo's Clothing company should advertise on radio rather than
on newspaper. The conclusion is based upon an analogy that the arguer make between the music store, Disc Depot, and
the clothing company in question. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the music store earns money
because of a successful radio advertising campaign. But in my point of view, the argument, as it stands, suffers from
three critical flaws. In the first place, the arguer rests on the gratuitous assumption that the music store's success largely depends on its
new radio advertising campaign. The argument appears to be reasonable at first glance, while more discreet inspection
reveals that large increase in foot traffic into the store, as the arguer noted, cannot guarantee a dramatic growth.
For example, the clients may find the music dull after looking around, or they may just want to listen to the free music
in the store. The radio may draw more clients into the store, but it is the products that attract the client to buy.
It is likely, in some conditions, that radio advertising help the music store grow. Yet this alone does not consittute
a sufficient support. Unfortunately, the arguer's study does not develop this idea in sufficient depth, offering
groundless assumption rather than an exhaustive analysis. In the second place, the arguer fails to take into account other facts that contribute to the success of a business. The
quality, the style, and the price of the clothes, the location, the human resources, and the business strategy of the business
are all factors influencing the Carlo's. In absence of a comprehensive examination of the business, any
conclusion at this stage is premature. Last but not least, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy. It accords with common sense that music store and clothing
business are so, if not totally, different that a strategy applied in one business may not work in another, and in
some cases may even do harm to the business. Therefore, even if the assumption that the music store makes money from
the radio advertising, the clothing store may find newspaper advertising more attractive. The fact makes the analogy
notably invalid that consumers want to see pictures of the clothings in the advertisement, while want to listen to
the sample music on the radio. To sum up, since the arguer does not offer any evidence to support that his assumption is always true, nor does he take into
account other concerns, the conclusion lacks credibility. To solidify the argument, the arguer would have to consider
the whole situation comprehensively, and demonstrate that radio advertising is as effective to the company as to
the music store. Thus, I would suggest the arguer to conduct a feasibility study, before plunging into the radio advertising campaign,
encompassing all the above-mentioned factors to minimize any potential risks. | 
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发表于 2006-9-20 04:36:00
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