[推荐] AA120和 124范 文

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120. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.

“Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a ‘World Tour’ theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this sit e and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade.”

In the memorandum, the writer presents a proposal to improve the profits of a company that develops amusement parks by establishing a new park using international themes. However, a further analysis of the memorandum reveals that the information used to reach the conclusion does not present sufficient evidence to make the argument convincing and sound.

First, the writer is assuming that building a park with international themes would be successful. Having interesting rides and stands featuring these variations can be nice, but can not be assumed as a key for success. By doing so, the writer confuses chronology with causation. This is, after building the park, people would not necessary come due to the international theme.

Second, the writer of the memorandum relies on the fact that the location would be a major element to the success of this new park. Once again, he or she, is drawing a false assumption considering a direct relation between the location and achieving the proposed goals. Moreover, in the memorandum is presented the postulation that because of the size of the city, and the amount of international residents the park would be a hit. However, it can not be assumed that international residents do like international themes.

Additionally, even if this park has the correct mixture to become interesting to visitors, its success can not be compared with the one of the Space Travel Theme park. Even though, the argument fails to present why the success of this park, we can think in various reasons, for instance, the space theme itself, its location, or because there was not another park – a big one, close the capital city and featuring international themes – to create competence. As well, it can be considered, that current attendants to amusement parks prefer space rather than international themes. Therefore, the writer is not only drawing a false analogy, but also is missing the fact that this proposed new park would have to compete against the other affecting a possible success.

Finally, after making these considerations, we can realize that the argument does not present information about why people is traveling more to other countries. Nevertheless, the writer is using this new trend to present and support the memorandum. Perhaps, the reason are economic factors, or studying abroad, facts that can not be assumed as booster for the interest of people in international theme parks.

In conclusion, the argument is weak and unconvincing. Since the assumptions are not well supported, the conclusion can not be proved. In order to strengthen the argument, the writer should present evidence that international residents are willing to visit this parks, and that the location is determined after a detailed study. To better evaluate the conclusion it would be useful to know why the previous park was successful and why it can be used as a comparison.

124.The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.

“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for DiscDepot.”

范 文 1：

I do not find the argument convincing because it fails to substantiate its assumptions with required evidence.

The owner of Carlo's Clothing argues that switching the store's advertising method from newspaper ads to radio ads will invigorate their stagnant sales, just as the sales at Disc Depot increased last year. In drawing his conclusion, he makes various assumptions that are not shown to be borne out by fact.

Firstly, he assumes that the increase in foot traffic at Disc Depot occurred because of radio ads. Because Carlo's Clothing does not have radio ads, he jumps to the conclusion that that is the key to increasing revenues at Carlo's Clothing. However, the fact is that there could be other ways Disc Depot advertised or otherwise promoted itself last year which could have increased the foot traffic there. It could have offered special discounts, targeted a specific audience, or advertised on TV, leading to more foot traffic.

Secondly, he assumes that increased foot traffic at Disc Depot is the cause of its increased revenues. But ths may not be true. While the number of customers may have increased due to radio ads, the amount of sales could have increased due to a few large special orders, accounting adjustments, or other reasons unrelated to the new ads.

Last but not the least, he erroneously assumes that what happened with the revenues at Disc Depot last year will play itself out at Carlo's Clothing if Carlo's switches from newspaper to radio sales. Under the given set of conditions, this could be a dangerous leap of faith. There is no guarantee that a strategy that possibly led to higher revenues at Disc Depot last year will do the same this year at Disc Depot or Carlo's. Additionally, there is no evidence to justify any similarities in the two stores. Stopping newspaper ads and replacing them with radio ads could instead reduce Carlo's revenues.

In conclusion, Carlo's owner has not provided sufficient argument to support his proposal. The argument could be strengthened by providing sufficient evidence that indicates pertinent similarities between Carlo's and Disc's businesses and client base, surveys that indicate that the additional foot traffic at Disc brought in additional sales, and trend indicators that point to similarity in the expected revenues at Disc this year as compared to last year.

范 文 2：

The argument looks very convincing in the beginning, however a second look brings out the underlying flaws. It is based on the few assumptions that author has made without indepth analysis.

According to the argument Disc Depot, a music store, has increased its business once it began a new radio advertising campaign. The large increase in foot traffic into the store is the main evidence provided by the author to prove it. The argument does not provide any statistical data regarding the income or profit of Disc depot. It merely assumes more people walk to the store to buy music. Many people go to a music store to check out the new music releases, listen to the songs, hang out and have a good time over there. That does not really indicate an increase in the store's business.

Another flawed assumption by the author is about the owners who retire as they have become wealthy. There is no data or evidence showing the wealth amassed by the owners. They could have done that due to many reasons. It could be due to their personal needs or interests or it could also be due to the fact that they were not really making enough profit at Disc Depot, therefore planning to do or start something new.

Also, even if the business did increase, no evidence given by the auther indicates that it is due to the new radio advertising campaign. The Disc Depot is one block away from the Clothing store. The block probably has many other good stores or attractions which makes people shop more often over there. The Disc Depot could have also used other mediums for advertisement. They could have been giving discount sales or deals or used other sales mechanism to increase their business.

However, there is no guarantee that it will happen for Carlo's clothing.
A music store which sells music can allure people through a radio advertising as most of its customers are music listeners and would listen to a radio, while this is not always true for a shopper who buys clothes. They would probably be more interested in newspaper or magazine advertisements where they can get the visual feel of the product they plan to purchase.

So the money spend on the radio advertising many not get Carlo's clothing the intended results. As the company has remained stagnant for the past there years, they have to be very judicial before thay make a move. They have to analyse the risks associated very carefully and portend the returns before investing on a new strategy.

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