关于本月机警AA72

zifanzi · 发表于 2008-7-13 21:52:00

有哪位过路的NN能帮忙指出三个逻辑错误啊，感觉思路不是很清晰。。

72. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.

“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”

专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：

本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部

iloveandy · 发表于 2008-7-13 23:51:00

1 ignore other factors. Other essential reasons may decide the decline of clothing profit, such as old-fashioned style, fault of both management and sale strategy, and low staff morale.
2 confuse mere correlation with causal relationship. A mere positive correlation between decrease in clothing average profit and increase in home products average profit does not necessarily prove a causal relationship.
3 gratuitous assumption. The author falsely depends on gratuitous
assumption that people who purchase more home products rather than clothes lead to less sale income and income. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to
support this assumption. Therefore, the further method to boost clothes income is not reliable and needs to be thought deeply.

PS: My English it not very well. I just hope that it is helpful for you.

黄公子 · 发表于 2008-9-17 23:08:00

这题我也有点糊涂，我的攻击点如下，请NN指正

三个月时间太短不具有代表性

利润增加跟消费者偏好购买家用商品没有建立因果关系.

报告是否可信

感觉攻击不是很有力

而且我无法自然套上自己准备的模板

关于本月机警AA72