AA058

58. The following is from a campaign by Big Boards, Inc., to convince companies in River
                    City that their sales will increase if they use Big Boards billboards for advertising their locally manufactured products.

“The potential of Big Boards to increase sales of your products can be seen from an experiment we conducted last year. We increased public awareness of the name of the current national women’s marathon champion by publishing her picture and her name on billboards in River
                        City for a period of three months. Before this time, although the champion had just won her title and was receiving extensive national publicity, only five percent of 15,000 randomly surveyed residents of River City could correctly name the champion when shown her picture; after the three-month advertising experiment, 35 percent of respondents from a second survey could supply her name.”

这到题到底有那几个漏洞?我冥思苦想。。

1。survey的representative.

2. 冠军的知名度提高和给公司销量提高不一样。

不知道对不对，请牛牛们赐教。

谢谢。

去年和今年的情况可能不一样 not all the things are constant

同时发生的事未必有因果联系：在那个女的衣服上打广告和她知名度提高未必是因果关系。

两次survey的条件没能保证是一样的。两次调查的对比是有问题的，也许第二次调查的人仍是第一次的，那他们肯定很多都知道那个人了。而且第二次调查没有说总体样本。万一调查的是体校的学生呢？

但是。。。

“同时发生的事未必有因果联系：在那个女的衣服上打广告和她知名度提高未必是因果关系。”绿笔写的在文章中哪里有提到啊？

谢谢！！

以下是引用chouorange在2007-7-12 18:53:00的发言：

但是。。。

“同时发生的事未必有因果联系：在那个女的衣服上打广告和她知名度提高未必是因果关系。”绿笔写的在文章中哪里有提到啊？

谢谢！！

打错了，打广告，呵呵