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LQMM · 发表于 2006-4-11 07:06:00

The simple facts are these: the number of people killed each year by grizzly bears is about the same as the number of people killed by lightning on golf courses. And the number of people killed by lightning on golf course each year is about the same as the number of people electrocuted by electric blenders. All the horrible myths and gruesome stories aside, therefore, a grizzly bear is in fact about as dangerous as an electric blender or a game of golf.

4. Which one of the following, if true, would most effectively undermine the author’s argument?

(A) Although the number of people killed by lightning on golf courses each year is very small, the total number of lightning fatalities is many times greater.

(B) Electric blenders are among the safest household appliances; were the author to compare fatalities from electrical appliances in general, she would get a much higher figure.

(C) Most people would rather take their chances with blenders and golf games than with grizzly bears.

(D) Bears in general—including black, brown, and cinnamon bears, as well as grizzly bears—kill many more people than do electric blenders.

(E) Statistics show that the number of times people use electric blenders each year exceeds the number of times people play golf each year, which in turn far exceeds the number of contacts people have with grizzly bears each year.

为什么不选B

fredshen · 发表于 2006-4-12 06:21:00

If you choose B, then why you dont choose D?

B is out of scope.

Be clear what the conclusion is.

It is, obviously

a grizzly bear is in fact about as dangerous as an electric blender or a game of golf

By bringing in other appliances doesnt weaken this conclusion a bit. It is comparing grizzly bear and electric blender. D is wrong for the same reason.

Here the key is, classical LSAT trap, number and percentage mixing. Same number doesnt mean same risk level (which is percentage in concept), you have to look at how many total number for each group to determin risk level.

Some common percent traps

1. For an accident, A involves 80% of time and B invovles 20% of time. Therefore A has more chance to be invovled in that accident.

2. A has higher chance than B to have C. Therefore if C happens, more likely it's going to be A.

3. A has fastest growth in a group which average some growth rate, and hence 1) A has the largest growth in that group. 2) Other member in the group has smaller portion than A in the group. ....

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-4-12 6:27:42编辑过]

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