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The following appeared in a newspaper story givingadvice about investments: “As overall life expectancy continues to rise, thepopulation of our country is growing increasingly older. For example, more than20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now atleast 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that regiondeclined significantly during the past six months. Because of these two relatedtrends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels andinvest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc. In the given argument, the author concluded that a prudent investor should be well advisedto sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.Several reasons are offered in support of the argument. First of all, thecontinuous rise of overall life expectancy leads to the increase of the older. What’smore, the occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined greatlyduring the past 6 months. While the argument appears plausible at the firstglance, a closer examination reveals that the author fails to take into accountsome important factors that are necessary to substantiate the argument. In thefollowing paragraph, I will elaborate the main flaws of the argument. In the firstplace, the author falsely depends on the gratuitous assumption that the moreold people in this region, the more hospitals and nursing homes are needed. Thereis, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite anyevidence to support this assumption. Such false assumption will definitelyprevent the conclusion from being correct and convincing. Actually in somecountries or regions, most old people live with their children instead ofliving in a nursing home. Again, the author unfairly assumes withoutjustification that all things are equal, and that the background conditionshave remained the same at different times or at different locations. Decline ofoccupancy rate at resort hotels in the past 6 months is insufficient to predictthe continuous decline in the following months. There is the possibility thatthe factor that mainly affected the occupancy rate of the resort hotels haschanged and new factors may be added which will stop the decline of theoccupancy rate. Besides, the situation in resort hotels cannot represent thatof all the hotels in this region. Last but not least, a prudent investor willnot invest all his money in only one place. In case of taking risks, good investorswill put their money in several different places. But in the argument, theauthor takes for granted that investing in hotels and investing in hospital andnursing homes are mutually two exclusive alternatives and there is no any roomfor a middle ground. Many facts prove that the author didn’t make a good advicein investment. To sum up, thisargument is not well reasoned as it stands because the evidence cited in theanalysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make thisargument acceptable, the author is recommended to provide more informationabout the factors that will affect occupancy rate of hotels in the followingmonths. Additionally, a related and reliable survey showing the connectionbetween the growing population of the old and the number of hospitals andnursing homes will also cement the author’s position. Only with more logicalline of reasoning could this argument become more than merely an emotional appeal.
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发表于 2013-7-28 14:53:46
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