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60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
In this letter the author recommends a client to invest in Consolidated Industries since the demand for heating oil will increase in the future. To justify this recommendation, the author cites the prediction made by the climate forecasters that the unusually cold weather will continue for several more years and points out that the new homes in the region can also boost the demand for heating oil. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lent solid support to the conclusion, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.
Firstly, no credible evidence is provided to substantiate the assumption that the cold weather could increase the need for heating oil. In the absence of the comparison between the consumption of oil in last winter and those in the winters before, we cannot evaluate if the consumption was increased and whether the increase is noteworthy. Other factors, such as expenditure, may also influence the gross volume of heating oil, thus it is possible that residents in the region choose to wear more cloths in their home to adapt to the cold weather instead of using more oil.
Secondly, the prediction that the unusually cold weather will last for several more years is not defensible. The author provide no background information of the climate forecasters who made this prediction, thus the authority and credence of the prediction is open to doubt. Even if these forecasters are professional, the prediction may still be fallacious considering the variability of the weather patent.
Additionally, the author fail to indicate the actual number of homes which are being built in the region, and what percentage of the total number of homes do they make up. It is highly possible that the number of these new homes is negligible comparing to the whole number of homes in the region and the increase they may contribute is not noteworthy. Also, even if the number of homes is abundant, the author fail to rule out the possibility that residents in these new homes might use alternative ways for heating, such as air conditioner and electricity. Before more specific factors are provided, we cannot evaluate whether these new homes would increase the total demand of heating oil in the region.
In sum the conclusion seems to go beyond the information in the premise. To bolster it the author must provide a more detailed comparison of the change in oil consumption to undergird the assumption that lower temperature can lead to more oil consumption and provide more information-perhaps by way of a reliable survey-to prove that residents of the new homes in the area can be considered as a large number of potential customers in the future. |
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发表于 2013-3-3 19:02:49
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