argument 60 求教

wyx2012 · 发表于 2013-3-2 17:19:42

60.The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In the argument, the author concludes that an investment in Consolidated Industries will be profitable. In supporting of this conclusion, the author points out that most homes in northeastern United States use oil for heating each winter and Consolidated Industries’ major business is selling home heating oil. The author also claims that new homes are being built in the region and demand for heating oil will increase. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals that his conclusion is unconvincing in several aspects.

First of all, the argument rests on the assumption that the climate forecast is credible enough. Yet the author fails to give any evidence to justify this assumption. Common sense tells me that long-term climate forecast often result in less accuracy. Thus, it is entirely possible that the extreme weather pattern will not recur in the coming years. Without taking this factor into account, the author cannot even convince me that the demand of heating oil will remain, let alone increase.

In the second place, even if the weather pattern continues as predicted, it is unreasonable to assume that newcomers of the region will really lead to an increase of demand for heating oil sold by Consolidated Industries. Perhaps they will not follow the tradition to use oil for heating to pass through the cold winters but use electric heater instead. Or perhaps they will choose heating oil sold by other dealers. Thus, the author needs to provide specific evidence that demand for heating oil sold by Consolidated Industries will increase as a result of the population growth in that region before I can take his conclusion seriously.

Finally, even assuming that there is an increased demand for heating oil sold by Consolidated Industries in the region, the author’s conclusion is premature at best. He overlooks the possibility that the overall demand for heating oil is actually decreasing since Consolidated Industries meets a decline of demand in other regions. Moreover, without weighing revenue against expense, the author cannot justifiably conclude that an increased demand will surly bring about huge profit since shipping, storing and advertising cost also increase.

In sum, the argument is not well supported as it stands. To bolster the argument, the author needs to provide clear evidence that the climate forecast is reliable. To better assess the argument, I also need to know detailed financial projections of the Consolidated Industries for the coming years.

练了7-8篇，水平停滞在这样一个层次，时间一般要1小时出头，好痛苦。。。

[作文互改] argument 60 求教

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