The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitableenterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away fromMonroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all toitself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz inMonroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer,several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radioprogram in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates thatthe typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. Wetherefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to beanswered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which itis based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questionswould help to evaluate the prediction.
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While it might be true that a new jazz club should be built in Monroe andit will be pretty profitable, the developers don't make cogent inference tovalidate it in this argument. We can tell that there is no jazz club locallyand we might be supposed to take the authors' advice, but this argument is rifewith holes and weak assumptions. Readers can easily come up with a host ofquestions that will undermine or even topple the authors' idea.
The authors claim that the new jazz club in Monroe will be welcome becausethe nearest jazz club, C Note, is 60 miles away. The local-market theory may betrue, but it's still quite possible that people are not always going to jazzclub because of the distance. What if the most popular jazz club now is quitefar away but it is famous for the culture and milieu of that club? People whowant to enjoy the best music are not always care too much about the distance.Even if the new local jazz club is built, the new one will be definitely absentfrom the long history of a good fame, which might give rise to the difficultyto invite popular jazz singers. Unless the authors provide some moreinformation indicating that most of the jazz clubs are almost the same and peoplewill not care about the culture of the clubs too much, we cannot simply concurwith the authors' local-market theory.
Likewise, the fact that more than 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazzfestival last year is still not convincing. We aren't informed with thecomposition information of this 100,000 people. Be more specific, it's totallyprobable that most of these people are from all over the country due to thereputation of this concert. After all, it's only a big event happened toMonroe, it makes sense that people rush into our city to join the festival onlyonce a year. In this sense, even if the local new club is open, it's no doubtimpossible that people come to this jazz club from all over the countryfrequently. To improve their argument, the authors have to effectively bridgethe high attendance rate with jazz fans in Monroe. Only then can we expect thepopularity of a new local jazz club.
Last, the authors simply apply the result of nationwide survey to thelocal condition. The nationwide average expenditure on jazz for a jazz fan eachyear is close to $1,000 but we cannot conclude that jazz fans in Monroe alsoprefer spending this bunch of money. People in Monroe may not want to spend toomuch money on music due to the taxes or price level in Monroe. To say theleast, if jazz fans here do spend a lot of much on jazz entertainment, we stillcannot say the new jazz club will make much profit. What if most of this moneyis spent on buying jazz instruments instead of attending clubs? If this isvalidated, I'm afraid that this argument becomes ineffective.
Some profitable and promising enterprise is eagerly needed by the cityMonroe. But we don't want to invest the bunch of money to some bootless andfutile works. A comprehensive consideration should be made so therecommendation from this argument needs further evaluation. To make a grandioseand complete argument, the authors have to continue providing relative andeffective information as well as answer some questions. Only in this way can wetake the new-jazz-club suggestion into account and perhaps make further step. | 
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发表于 2013-1-30 06:21:03
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