- UID
- 829703
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2012-11-13
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
76. Thefollowing appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reducetheir intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fatproducts abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currentlymarketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company'ssales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubtdecrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, andother investors not to purchase stock in this company."
Write aresponse in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in orderto decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based arereasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help toevaluate the advice.
In thisargument the author suggests that Old Dairy stockholders should sell theirshares, and other investors should not purchase stock in this company. Tosupport the assertion, the author cites a survey indicating that 80 percent ofpeople show a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats andcholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. The authoralso claim that Old Dairy’s sales are likely to diminish greatly and thecompany profits will no doubt decrease, for many food product in this companyare marked by high in fat and cholesterol. However, the argument contains a seriesof logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.
Firstof all, the author fails to provide evidence that the survey’s responders arerepresentative of overall group of people. What’s more the author fails to tellus how many people have taken part in the survey, perhaps the 80 percent ofpeople can only stand a small part of people’ s opinions. Without suchinformation, it is entirely possible that the 80 percent of responders hatefoods containing fat and cholesterol. In short, without better evidence thatthe survey is statistically reliable, the author cannot rely on it to draw anyfirm conclusion about eating habit of whole.
Secondly,the author unfairly equates foods in Old Dairy abound in fat and cholesterolwith sales diminishing and profit decreasing. Although the survey mentionedshows the trend of food with less fat and cholesterol, and foods in the companyare high in fat, the sales will not absolutely decrease. The manager may haveother strategies to attract customers, such as sales or price cutting. Without consideringthis possibility, author’s claim cannot firmly convince me.
Thirdly,in advising that Old Dairy stockholders should sell their shares and otherinvestors should not purchase stock, the author overlooks the possibility thatOld Dairy will change marketing mode with the change of market. Other investorsperhaps have the ability in finding the hinted business opportunity to boom theOld Dairy. To this extent, the author’s suggestion is unconvincing.
Inconclusion, the claim that sales and profits in Old Dairy will decrease and therecommendation for stockholders to sell shares and investors not buy the stock isnot well support. To convince me that the sales will surely diminish, theauthor must provide evidence that the survey is convincing and the company hasno other alternative choice . Meanwhile, evidence that Old Dairy does not havethe ability to survive and is facing bankrupting is needed so that thesuggestion can be more convincing. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2013-1-10 21:40:23
收藏
收藏
