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The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In this memo, the speaker anticipated the upswing demand for heating oil in Northeastern United States by reciting both the days beneath normal temperature and the booming in new-built buildings. Although seeming plausible, the evidence available is far from suffice to extrapolate the author's assertion, unless the author furnishes more cogent and circumstantial information.
Firstly, the speaker failed to provide sufficient and reasonable evidence to elaborate that the Northeastern America will undergo more frigid winter in the next five years, which potentially leads to the increasing demand on heating oil. Even if he referred to an ostensibly terrifying data indeed, a rational extrapolation should be grounded on meticulous comparison. Therefore, the statistics regarding the days below-standard temperature of last five years are not accessible are favorable. Only if supplementary information indicates that the average annual days under normal temperature are less than 90 days, such as 50 days, the author's speculation is tenable. Otherwise, a more snug winter is expected. Based on the prediction of forecaster, which postulated the continuousness of this tendency, there will be a diminishing demand for oil heating on the contrary.
Additionally, the demonstration are established on an underlying assumption that the remarkable growth in building is bound to promote the dependence on oil heating, which unfortunately lack persuasive evidence. To consolidate the validity and credibility of this assumption, exhaustive information concerning these new building would be conducive. Without these information, we cannot preclude the alternative explanation that other environmental friendly approaches, such as solar energy and electric energy, instead of oil heating are now universally applied in most new constructions. If so, the increasing number of buildings will not generate considerable impacts on oil demand. Meanwhile, the possibility that high-tech and energy-protective materials are used in new buildings will decline the dependence on heating oil cannot be excluded either.
Eventually, another apparent problem of the speaker's claim consisted in not taking the advancement in the efficiency of oil consuming into consideration, which is a decisive factor to determine the required amount of heating oil. The development of efficiency will guarantee less amount of heating oil than they consumed in the past and accordingly the total demand of oil heating will decline instead. Thus, we assure the validity of the author's prediction only on the precondition that the efficiency of oil heating will not be ameliorated in the five years. To appraise the trend of oil demand, an exhaustive and thorough evaluation report involving the improvement of efficiency are indispensable.
Conclusively, the statement is problematic in lacking sufficient evidence to establish the causality. To strengthen this argument, the author had better present more pertinent data and supplement the further information concerning both the new building and the promotion of efficiency. |
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发表于 2012-12-4 23:43:09
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