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24. A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
(相似题目：26、28)
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the argument, some health experts believe that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future. They support the prediction based on the fact that the discovery of therapeutic effect of salicylates and many companies' planning that use salicylates as flavor additives. However, I am afraid the argument can hardly bear further consideration because the conclusion is made without taking account of several important questions about the effectiveness of the study and the possible factors which can also influence the number of headaches.
First and foremost, the author only mentions about that salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin without providing other persuasive evidence to prove its effectiveness in curing the headaches. As we know, even though chemicals in the same family can have very different chemical nature or different side effects when taken by human. For example, a hundred years ago, there was a material called tartaric acid which was discovered to have effects to cure heart disease by the researchers. But the products which contain tartaric acids in the market lead a lot of serious side effects even death. After researching, the scientists find the reason is that because of the negligence of researchers, there were some other materials which belong to the same family of tartaric acids produced during the production process. This kind of material has serious side effects to human even though it is very similar to tartaric acid. So, the researchers should make a hasty conclusion because materials in the same family might not have the same effects.
Furthermore, it is reasonable for us to ask whether the study is comprehensive and objective. Since it is a two decades study and the researchers do not provide information such as the change of population or age structure. There might be other possible reasons ignored by researchers in the study. For instance, if the working pressure was reduced obviously or living environment in Mentia has been improved vastly, the author cannot attribute the reduction of headaches simply to the increasing consumption of salicylates. Furthermore, the study only uses the data from the report of headaches, which is unsound because there might be people who did not report their headaches. In addition, the researchers do not provide information about the relationship between the consumption level of study participants and the number of headaches, which leads the fact unsound evidence to directly prove the effectiveness of salicylates.
To sum up, after pointing out so many obvious flaws in the argument, we can say that the evidence cited by the authors can hardly be relied on. Not only can we query the effectiveness of salicylates in curing the headaches, but also we will ask the comprehensiveness of the study. In addition, the author should answer that whether there are other possible factors changed in twenty years that result the reduction of headaches. Before answering the foregoing questions, the authors should not reach a conclusion in hasty. |
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发表于 2012-11-8 12:26:27
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