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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
In this recommendation,the author contends that with an increased demand for heating oil,investment in Consolidated Industries will be a good choice.To bolster his conclusion,the author cites that most homes in the northeastern United States have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating,and because of the last 90 days with below-normal temperatures and the prediction of following weather pattern,there will be more demand for oil.In addition,the arguer points out recent population growth is also a primary cause.Maybe it seems to be plausible at the fist glance,after a thorough reflection,however,we will find it fraught with logical flaws.To steady his conclusion,the author has to provide extra evidence.
In the first place,the author assumes without justification that last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures,and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.However,we should recognize that it is really possible there had been longer days with below-normal temperatures in the past.And the last year is just a point turning better.If it were the case,then it is irrational to assert that in the following years,people will need more heating oil.Without an extra explicit evidence,the author cannot make this conclusion arbitrarily.
In the second place,the author makes the assumption that many new homes are responsible to recent population growth.Nonetheless,commonsense tells us it is a poor assumption.As we all know,it is more likely an increasing amount of new houses means there are more benefits in this field,rather than because of population growing.Moreover,even if it is true,the author would be rash to say there would be an increased demand for heating oil,for that with the growing of population,more and more new resource will spring up so that we have a broader choices to choose.In addition,we always intend to choose a new one.From the consideration noted above,we can see the conclusion of author is of little validity.
Finally,even if the foregoing assumptions turns out to be support the conclusion,the author still can't make such conclusion,just simply assuming that Consolidated Industries,one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil,would get profits by some investment.It is reasonable to doubt that people will,in a greater likelihood,choose large companies rather than a retail companies.Therefore,the author should prove why none of the alternatives is available or why none of them is able to sustain.
In sum,the author's conclusion is of little credibility. To reach the cited conclusion,he has to provide information about weather condition of recent years and statistics towards a general number of people.What's more,it is necessary for him to take all possibilities into consideration and think carefully before assuming. |
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发表于 2012-10-8 17:01:49
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