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The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products. " revious experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program,which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
Recently, Nature's Way is opening its new chain shop in Plainsville. At the same time, the author predicts the success of the new shop, providing several viewpoints to enhance his prediction. This argument seems to be cogent.,actually, it is based on a series of unwarranted assumptions.
To begin with, the author implies that, residents in Plainsville regard health as a major part in their life. Fortunately, Nature's Way tends to be most profitable in this kind of area. Nevertheless, the author fails to take into account other aspects of Plainsville, such as the budget of an average family, the living habits of the residents and the location of the city. Suppose Plainsville is a little city located in a mountain. The worst is, the majority of citizens lack money to feed themselves, not to mention consuming in Nature's Way. Unless the author is able to demonstrate Plainsville is a large and wealthy city with a great amount of citizens who are crazy about buying healthy products,the concern of the author about this issue is unfounded.
Second, strong sells of running shoes and exercise clothing is unpersuasive to prove that the chain shop will be profitable or that the people show interest in sports. Perhaps sports-product manufacture is the most beneficial industry in Plainsville, and almost 90% of the running shoes and sportswear will be transported to other cities. Even if the citizens are likely to wear running shoes and exercise clothing ,the fact is they do not have other choices for economic reasons. Common sense tells us that health-related products are always expensive. As a result, the sales of new chain store is unlikely to reach the goal that the author expected in the argument.
Finally, local health clubs attract more members than before; the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Based on this fact, the author draws the conclusion that selling health related products is beneficial since more and more residents focus on the methods to keep healthy. This maybe true in some cases, but the author neglects to produce more specific figures about the number of people who are working out in the gym every week, and the maximum number of members that a weight training and aerobics class could hold. Probably, all of the new members will not return to gym because they do not have faith to continue. Thus, the profit of Nature's Way in Plainville does not seems positive anymore.
In conclusion, the argument relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author is supposed to provide more cogent evidence, such as the economic atmosphere of Plainville, the number of residents working out every week and the accurate budget that every family plans to consume health related products every year. |
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发表于 2012-8-10 17:43:04
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