【题目76】：The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
【写作要求】：Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.
【提纲】
1. 调查是否可靠
2. 高脂肪食品销售不一定降，就算降，总体食品销售收益也不一定降
3. 就算食品销售收益下降，OLD DAIRY公司的整体效益亦不一定会降
【正文】
In the argument above, the author advises old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase its stock. To support this conclusion, the author cites the evidence that low-fat products are more desired among public in a survey, and points out that Old Dairy's sales are likely to fall. Close inspection of the evidence and reasoning line reveals, however, this advice is poorly supported and ill-advised unless some critical questions answered.
First of all, whether the survey cited in this argument is reliable is open to doubt. Specifically, we are not confirmed whether the responses are accurate and whether the respondents in the survey are statistically significant in number and representative of the overall food consumers. Besides, information is not given about who conducted this survey and whether it has any interests related to this industry. Without specific answers to these questions, the survey cited by the author is groundless and problematic at best.
Secondly, even assuming this survey is reliable, the fact that low-fat products are more desired among public does not necessarily indicates that the Old Dairy's sales are likely to decline and hence the company profits. Firstly, granted that low-fat products are preferable in public, it does not follow that people will no longer need foods high in fat and cholesterol and will never spend one cent on it. Secondly, even if this decrease of high fat and cholesterol products are inevitable, this company's sales do not necessarily to fall, for that Old dairy's food products might be composed of a wide range of styles and each style could meet the satisfaction for alternative choice. Besides, the author fails to inform us whether Old Dairy has food products low in fat or not. Without convincing evidences to rule out these possibilities, the arguer cannot justify the conclusion that the company profits will undoubtly decrease.
Finally, even assuming that Old Dairy's sales and profits of food high in fat and cholesterol will decrease, it does not necessarily indicate that this company is no longer profitable, and that investors should abandon it. First, the author fails to inform us the proportion of the high-fat food sales to its overall foods sales. If that proportion is relatively small, the company's profit might not be damaged even if the decline of high fat food. And, even the overall foods sale will undoubtly be ruined, the author overlooks the possibility that Old Dairy might involve in many other industries and maintain a lot of properties, say, real estates, which amounts to large percentage of its overall profits. In short, holding old dairy could still generate interests and investing Old Dairy could also be profitable.
In sum, this advice is not well supported and ill-advised. To better evaluate this argument the author must provide clear evidence to justify the survey and specific answers to whether Old dairy's overall profits will undoubtly decrease. Otherwise, this advice could be ill-conceived at best and mislead the investors who hold old dairy's stock or are ready to purchase its stock.
字数：497 时间: 59min 15/5/2012
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发表于 2012-5-16 22:02:19
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