A60 第一次写Argu………求批and讲解

yoyo1990 · 发表于 2012-5-18 17:41:22

刚发现这个区。。。在Argument版也发了一份。。。。

家里出了点事，原定复习计划完全打乱，而且估计这几天也没法好好复习。
本想再延考的，但是MS现在不大可能，家里更希望这次先考再说。希望父亲在天保佑。
第一次写Argu，还没有自己改过。。。希望能指点一下。遣词调句还有点问题，会在这几天看范文在学习记住一点常用句型。
嗯，求大牛讲解和批了。
第一次写，所以没有计时，而且不是一气呵成。字数646.

题目：
60. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client. "Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
正文：
In this letter, the author recommendsto invest the Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil. In order to make the recommendationmore persuasive, the author cites the truth of last heating season and theclimate prediction, and the increasing trends of newly-built homes. Superficially, the recommendation seems somewhat reasonable,but close scrutiny of the line of reasoning reveals that there are several unsubstantiatedassumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands, and therefore makes theargument unpersuasive.

The author unfairly makes therecommendation on the base of the assumption that the cold weather pattern willcontinue. Admittedly, it is truth that last heating season that regionexperienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures. Does this phenomenon occurannually? Or is it mere an unusual circumstance just because of abnormalbreaking of the balance of Nature like El Nino or La Nina? Under suchcircumstances, once the cause contributing to the below-normal temperaturedisappears, the temperature will rise again. This needs more researches andsurveys to prove. Even though it occurs annually, does this pattern will continue?Although climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continuefor several more years, this prediction may be invalid. Thanks to the Butterflyeffect, the long-term prediction is allergic to the initial value. A littledifference between the values we used, the outcomes may have a large gapbetween them.

Additionally, the assumption that thedemand for the heating oil will increase is obviously unpersuasive. Citing theincreasing trends of newly-built homes and the population, the author hastilyconcludes that the trend of demand for heating oil will increase. Lackingevidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that these newhomes are not occupied even assuming the population is growing, let alone itcannot be denied without strong evidences and surveys that there is possibilitythat the population will keep steady in the future. Granted that the number of occupiednew homes is growing, the demand for the heating oil would not increase meanwhile.With the rapid development of science and technology, more and more ways to getwarm besides using oil as fuel for heating. We can install air-conditioner orother electronic equipment, using electricity, to keep the temperature high; wecan use natural gas, biogas and other natural resources rather than oil as fuelfor heating; we still can use none of them just fight against the cold on ourown.

Even if the demand for the heating oilis great, investment in Consolidated Industries may not be a good choice. Thereis no evidence that the retail Sale of home heating oil in ConsolidatedIndustries is profitable. There could be other competitive companies who alsosell retailing home heating oil, which may have a great proportion share ofthis region. Even provided that the retail sale of home heating oil inConsolidated Industries is good, investment in Consolidated Industries may notbe promising. Retailing home heating oil is just one of the ConsolidatedIndustries’ major business operations. Performing well in this part doesn’tmean that also well in other parts and so we cannot predict it will profitableas a whole. For example, like this, retailing home heating oil part has a profitof 500 dollars, while other parts have a loss of 1000 dollars, which makes thewhole Consolidated Industries have a loss of 500 dollars. It is obvious thatthe investment would be a failure.

As I have put forward, the assumptionsthat the recommendation bases on prove unwarranted. The cold weather patternmay not continue, the demand for the heating oil may be low and theConsolidated Industries may be not a good choice to invest. The argument isweak and the logic is flawed, and therefore there is no evidence that therecommendation of investment in Consolidated Industries will be surelyprofitable.

yoyo1990 · 发表于 2012-5-18 18:09:53

提纲：
1、天气会冷会持续？
2、对oil的需求会上升？
3、对CI的投资是有利可图的？

竹林中人 · 发表于 2012-5-18 18:46:16

Superficially, the recommendation seems somewhat reasonable,but close scrutiny of the line of reasoning reveals that there are several unsubstantiatedassumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands, and therefore makes theargument unpersuasive.这个句式被太多的人用到，我想ＬＺ能否想个直接点的另外的一个句式呢
嗯，我觉得ＬＺ写的很到位，论证很充分，语言也很好，能去掉一些模板的痕迹就更好

yoyo1990 · 发表于 2012-5-19 21:27:14

恩~谢谢竹林~会把这类语句弄得更简短自然一点~THX~

[作文互改] A60 第一次写Argu………求批and讲解

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